Ole Miss vs Oklahoma CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Ole Miss at Oklahoma. 2026-11-14 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #12. Ole Miss -2.5.
Ole Miss playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 11.5% | 20.2% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 11.3% | 19.6% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
Oklahoma playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Ohio State: 3.5% outcome swing; Oklahoma wins
- Oregon: 3.0% outcome swing; Oklahoma wins
- New Mexico: 2.4% outcome swing; Oklahoma wins
- Tennessee: 2.3% outcome swing; Oklahoma wins
- Kentucky: 1.7% outcome swing; Oklahoma wins
Impacts if Ole Miss wins
- Ohio State: -1.5% change; Oklahoma wins
- Oregon: -1.4% change; Oklahoma wins
- Tennessee: -1.1% change; Oklahoma wins
- New Mexico: -1.0% change; Oklahoma wins
- Wake Forest: -0.9% change; Oklahoma wins
Impacts if Oklahoma wins
- Ohio State: 2.0% change; Oklahoma wins
- Oregon: 1.6% change; Oklahoma wins
- New Mexico: 1.4% change; Oklahoma wins
- Tennessee: 1.2% change; Oklahoma wins
- Kentucky: 1.1% change; Oklahoma wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Ole Miss wins | Oklahoma wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 20.2% | 0.0% | 20.2% | Ole Miss wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 19.8% | 23.3% | 3.5% | Oklahoma wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 26.9% | 29.9% | 3.0% | Oklahoma wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 26.9% | 29.3% | 2.4% | Oklahoma wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 52.8% | 55.1% | 2.3% | Oklahoma wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 13.4% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 1.7% | Oklahoma wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 44.9% | 46.5% | 1.6% | Oklahoma wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 44.8% | 46.1% | 1.3% | Oklahoma wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 81.5% | 82.8% | 1.3% | Oklahoma wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 34.4% | 35.5% | 1.1% | Oklahoma wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 64.8% | 65.9% | 1.1% | Oklahoma wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 66.7% | 65.7% | 1.0% | Ole Miss wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.3% | 25.2% | 0.9% | Oklahoma wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 16.9% | 17.6% | 0.7% | Oklahoma wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 93.9% | 94.5% | 0.6% | Oklahoma wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 19.1% | 18.6% | 0.5% | Ole Miss wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 10.6% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 0.5% | Oklahoma wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.7% | 73.2% | 0.5% | Ole Miss wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.2% | 42.6% | 0.4% | Oklahoma wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | Oklahoma wins |