Tennessee vs Texas A&M CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 11 pregame analysis for Tennessee at Texas A&M. 2026-11-14 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #7. Tennessee -3.

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Tennessee playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP53.9%70.7%24.8%
At-large49.1%64.1%25.4%
Automatic bid4.8%7.3%0.1%
Conference title game16.9%26.4%0.3%

Texas A&M playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.0%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Oregon: 5.6% outcome swing; Texas A&M wins
  2. Iowa: 5.2% outcome swing; Texas A&M wins
  3. Ole Miss: 4.2% outcome swing; Texas A&M wins
  4. Indiana: 3.7% outcome swing; Texas A&M wins
  5. Arizona: 3.4% outcome swing; Texas A&M wins

Impacts if Tennessee wins

  1. Oregon: -2.0% change; Texas A&M wins
  2. Iowa: -1.6% change; Texas A&M wins
  3. Indiana: -1.5% change; Texas A&M wins
  4. Ole Miss: -1.3% change; Texas A&M wins
  5. Arizona: -1.2% change; Texas A&M wins

Impacts if Texas A&M wins

  1. Iowa: 3.6% change; Texas A&M wins
  2. Oregon: 3.6% change; Texas A&M wins
  3. Ole Miss: 2.9% change; Texas A&M wins
  4. Arizona: 2.2% change; Texas A&M wins
  5. Indiana: 2.2% change; Texas A&M wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentTennessee winsTexas A&M winsSwingBetter outcome
TennesseeSEC53.9%70.7%24.8%45.9%Tennessee wins
OregonBig Ten28.3%26.3%31.9%5.6%Texas A&M wins
IowaBig Ten24.7%23.1%28.3%5.2%Texas A&M wins
Ole MissSEC11.5%10.2%14.4%4.2%Texas A&M wins
IndianaBig Ten82.0%80.5%84.2%3.7%Texas A&M wins
ArizonaBig 1217.3%16.1%19.5%3.4%Texas A&M wins
BYUBig 1242.3%41.1%44.4%3.3%Texas A&M wins
Ohio StateBig Ten21.3%20.1%23.4%3.3%Texas A&M wins
TexasSEC73.4%72.3%75.3%3.0%Texas A&M wins
Wake ForestACC45.8%44.7%47.2%2.5%Texas A&M wins
Texas TechBig 1234.9%34.0%36.2%2.2%Texas A&M wins
UCLABig Ten65.3%64.4%66.6%2.2%Texas A&M wins
KentuckySEC13.4%12.6%14.4%1.8%Texas A&M wins
HoustonBig 1245.3%44.9%46.3%1.4%Texas A&M wins
UtahBig 1294.2%93.5%94.9%1.4%Texas A&M wins
USCBig Ten9.8%9.6%10.4%0.8%Texas A&M wins
AlabamaSEC96.6%96.3%97.0%0.7%Texas A&M wins
LSUSEC18.7%19.3%18.6%0.7%Tennessee wins
New MexicoMountain West27.9%27.5%28.2%0.7%Texas A&M wins
MissouriSEC0.7%0.5%0.9%0.4%Texas A&M wins