Alabama vs Vanderbilt CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 11 pregame analysis for Alabama at Vanderbilt. 2026-11-14 17:45 UTC. National Impact rank: #21. Alabama -19.5.

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Alabama playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP96.6%97.4%78.5%
At-large68.3%68.2%71.8%
Automatic bid28.3%29.0%6.5%
Conference title game57.4%59.3%12.3%

Vanderbilt playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.0%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Tennessee: 4.6% outcome swing; Alabama wins
  2. Ole Miss: 3.6% outcome swing; Vanderbilt wins
  3. Iowa: 2.5% outcome swing; Vanderbilt wins
  4. Oregon: 2.5% outcome swing; Vanderbilt wins
  5. BYU: 1.9% outcome swing; Vanderbilt wins

Impacts if Alabama wins

  1. Ole Miss: -0.2% change; Vanderbilt wins
  2. Indiana: -0.1% change; Vanderbilt wins
  3. Iowa: -0.1% change; Vanderbilt wins
  4. Missouri: -0.1% change; Vanderbilt wins
  5. New Mexico: -0.1% change; Vanderbilt wins

Impacts if Vanderbilt wins

  1. Tennessee: -4.5% change; Alabama wins
  2. Ole Miss: 3.4% change; Vanderbilt wins
  3. Iowa: 2.4% change; Vanderbilt wins
  4. Oregon: 2.4% change; Vanderbilt wins
  5. BYU: 1.9% change; Vanderbilt wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentAlabama winsVanderbilt winsSwingBetter outcome
AlabamaSEC96.6%97.4%78.5%18.9%Alabama wins
TennesseeSEC53.9%54.0%49.4%4.6%Alabama wins
Ole MissSEC11.5%11.3%14.9%3.6%Vanderbilt wins
IowaBig Ten24.7%24.6%27.1%2.5%Vanderbilt wins
OregonBig Ten28.3%28.2%30.7%2.5%Vanderbilt wins
BYUBig 1242.3%42.3%44.2%1.9%Vanderbilt wins
TexasSEC73.4%73.4%75.3%1.9%Vanderbilt wins
IndianaBig Ten82.0%81.9%83.7%1.8%Vanderbilt wins
Ohio StateBig Ten21.3%21.2%22.9%1.7%Vanderbilt wins
Wake ForestACC45.8%45.7%46.8%1.1%Vanderbilt wins
ArizonaBig 1217.3%17.3%18.3%1.0%Vanderbilt wins
UCLABig Ten65.3%65.3%66.3%1.0%Vanderbilt wins
HoustonBig 1245.3%45.3%46.2%0.9%Vanderbilt wins
Texas TechBig 1234.9%34.9%35.8%0.9%Vanderbilt wins
OklahomaSEC0.0%0.0%0.8%0.8%Vanderbilt wins
KentuckySEC13.4%13.4%14.1%0.7%Vanderbilt wins
UtahBig 1294.2%94.2%94.7%0.5%Vanderbilt wins
LSUSEC18.7%18.7%18.3%0.4%Alabama wins
MissouriSEC0.7%0.6%0.9%0.3%Vanderbilt wins
New MexicoMountain West27.9%27.8%28.1%0.3%Vanderbilt wins