Florida State vs Miami CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 7 pregame analysis for Florida State at Miami . 2026-10-17 23:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #31. Miami -21.
Rooting Guide
National Impact
CFP Odds
Conference Standings
Projected CFP Bracket
Back to National Impact
Path Current With win With loss CFP 0.3% 1.3% 0.0% Automatic bid 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% Conference title game 0.6% 4.5% 0.1%
Miami playoff pathsPath Current With win With loss CFP 95.1% 95.7% 83.2% At-large 11.3% 11.5% 6.6% Automatic bid 83.8% 84.0% 76.4% Conference title game 97.1% 97.5% 87.6%
Biggest non-participant CFP swings Alabama : 1.9% outcome swing; Florida State winsLouisville : 1.2% outcome swing; Florida State winsNorth Carolina : 1.1% outcome swing; Miami winsNotre Dame : 1.0% outcome swing; Miami winsTennessee : 1.0% outcome swing; Florida State winsImpacts if Florida State wins Alabama : 1.9% change; Florida State winsLouisville : 1.2% change; Florida State winsNorth Carolina : -1.1% change; Miami winsTennessee : 1.0% change; Florida State winsLSU : 0.9% change; Florida State winsImpacts if Miami wins Wake Forest : 0.4% change; Miami winsHouston : 0.2% change; Florida State winsUCLA : -0.2% change; Florida State winsBYU : -0.1% change; Florida State winsFlorida : -0.1% change; Florida State winsBiggest modeled CFP impacts This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
Team Conference Current Florida State wins Miami wins Swing Better outcome Miami ACC 95.1% 83.2% 95.7% 12.5% Miami wins Alabama SEC 77.1% 79.0% 77.1% 1.9% Florida State wins Florida State ACC 0.3% 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% Florida State wins Louisville ACC 1.3% 2.5% 1.3% 1.2% Florida State wins North Carolina ACC 3.1% 2.0% 3.1% 1.1% Miami wins Notre Dame FBS Independents 98.4% 97.5% 98.5% 1.0% Miami wins Tennessee SEC 14.7% 15.7% 14.7% 1.0% Florida State wins LSU SEC 18.1% 19.0% 18.1% 0.9% Florida State wins Pittsburgh ACC 2.0% 2.8% 2.0% 0.8% Florida State wins Ohio State Big Ten 78.7% 79.4% 78.7% 0.7% Florida State wins Oklahoma State Big 12 4.3% 4.9% 4.3% 0.6% Florida State wins SMU ACC 2.9% 3.4% 2.8% 0.6% Florida State wins Arizona Big 12 5.7% 6.2% 5.7% 0.5% Florida State wins Kentucky SEC 13.9% 14.4% 13.9% 0.5% Florida State wins Ole Miss SEC 19.2% 19.7% 19.2% 0.5% Florida State wins Wake Forest ACC 14.7% 14.6% 15.1% 0.5% Miami wins Clemson ACC 0.9% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% Florida State wins USC Big Ten 18.7% 19.1% 18.7% 0.4% Florida State wins Virginia ACC 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% Florida State wins Indiana Big Ten 87.5% 87.7% 87.4% 0.3% Florida State wins