Louisville vs Syracuse CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for Louisville at Syracuse. 2026-10-17 23:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #33. Louisville -13.5.

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Louisville playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP1.3%1.5%0.3%
Automatic bid1.3%1.5%0.3%
Conference title game6.7%8.2%0.7%

Syracuse playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.1%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Wake Forest: 1.8% outcome swing; Louisville wins
  2. Kentucky: 0.8% outcome swing; Louisville wins
  3. UCLA: 0.8% outcome swing; Syracuse wins
  4. USC: 0.8% outcome swing; Syracuse wins
  5. BYU: 0.7% outcome swing; Syracuse wins

Impacts if Louisville wins

  1. Kentucky: 0.4% change; Louisville wins
  2. UCLA: -0.3% change; Syracuse wins
  3. Missouri: -0.2% change; Louisville wins
  4. Oregon: -0.2% change; Syracuse wins
  5. Arizona: 0.1% change; Either outcome

Impacts if Syracuse wins

  1. Wake Forest: -1.7% change; Louisville wins
  2. USC: 0.7% change; Syracuse wins
  3. BYU: 0.6% change; Syracuse wins
  4. Miami: 0.6% change; Syracuse wins
  5. Ole Miss: -0.6% change; Louisville wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentLouisville winsSyracuse winsSwingBetter outcome
Wake ForestACC14.7%14.8%13.0%1.8%Louisville wins
LouisvilleACC1.3%1.5%0.3%1.2%Louisville wins
KentuckySEC13.9%14.3%13.5%0.8%Louisville wins
UCLABig Ten25.8%25.5%26.3%0.8%Syracuse wins
USCBig Ten18.7%18.6%19.4%0.8%Syracuse wins
BYUBig 1236.5%36.4%37.1%0.7%Syracuse wins
MiamiACC95.1%95.0%95.7%0.7%Syracuse wins
Ole MissSEC19.2%19.1%18.6%0.5%Louisville wins
WisconsinBig Ten7.6%7.7%8.1%0.4%Syracuse wins
IndianaBig Ten87.5%87.4%87.7%0.3%Syracuse wins
James MadisonSun Belt9.9%9.9%10.2%0.3%Syracuse wins
North CarolinaACC3.1%3.2%2.9%0.3%Louisville wins
OregonBig Ten17.9%17.7%18.0%0.3%Syracuse wins
TennesseeSEC14.7%14.8%14.5%0.3%Louisville wins
Texas TechBig 1276.2%76.1%76.4%0.3%Syracuse wins
Virginia TechACC0.2%0.2%0.5%0.3%Syracuse wins
AlabamaSEC77.1%77.1%76.9%0.2%Louisville wins
Boise StatePac-1269.5%69.5%69.3%0.2%Louisville wins
ClemsonACC0.9%0.8%1.0%0.2%Syracuse wins
GeorgiaSEC96.4%96.5%96.3%0.2%Louisville wins