North Carolina vs Duke CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 7 pregame analysis for North Carolina at Duke . 2026-10-17 19:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #19. Duke -3.
Rooting Guide
National Impact
CFP Odds
Conference Standings
Projected CFP Bracket
Back to National Impact
Path Current With win With loss CFP 3.1% 4.4% 1.1% At-large 2.4% 4.1% 1.2% Automatic bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% Conference title game 3.8% 5.8% 0.9%
Duke playoff pathsPath Current With win With loss CFP 0.8% 1.0% 0.1% At-large 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% Automatic bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% Conference title game 3.3% 4.4% 0.2%
Biggest non-participant CFP swings Wake Forest : 2.1% outcome swing; Duke winsBYU : 1.1% outcome swing; North Carolina winsUCLA : 1.0% outcome swing; Duke winsIowa : 0.5% outcome swing; Duke winsTennessee : 0.5% outcome swing; Duke winsImpacts if North Carolina wins BYU : 0.9% change; North Carolina winsWake Forest : -0.9% change; Duke winsUCLA : -0.6% change; Duke winsJames Madison : 0.4% change; North Carolina winsArizona : 0.3% change; North Carolina winsImpacts if Duke wins Wake Forest : 1.2% change; Duke winsTennessee : 0.6% change; Duke winsUSC : 0.5% change; Duke winsNotre Dame : -0.4% change; North Carolina winsUCLA : 0.4% change; Duke winsBiggest modeled CFP impacts This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
Team Conference Current North Carolina wins Duke wins Swing Better outcome North Carolina ACC 3.1% 4.4% 1.1% 3.3% North Carolina wins Wake Forest ACC 14.7% 13.8% 15.9% 2.1% Duke wins BYU Big 12 36.5% 37.4% 36.3% 1.1% North Carolina wins UCLA Big Ten 25.8% 25.2% 26.2% 1.0% Duke wins Duke ACC 0.8% 0.1% 1.0% 0.9% Duke wins Iowa Big Ten 18.4% 18.1% 18.6% 0.5% Duke wins Tennessee SEC 14.7% 14.8% 15.3% 0.5% Duke wins USC Big Ten 18.7% 18.7% 19.2% 0.5% Duke wins Arizona Big 12 5.7% 6.0% 5.6% 0.4% North Carolina wins James Madison Sun Belt 9.9% 10.3% 9.9% 0.4% North Carolina wins Kentucky SEC 13.9% 14.2% 13.8% 0.4% North Carolina wins Miami ACC 95.1% 94.8% 95.2% 0.4% Duke wins Notre Dame FBS Independents 98.4% 98.4% 98.0% 0.4% North Carolina wins Ohio State Big Ten 78.7% 78.6% 79.0% 0.4% Duke wins Boise State Pac-12 69.5% 69.3% 69.6% 0.3% Duke wins Houston Big 12 42.0% 42.1% 41.8% 0.3% North Carolina wins Missouri SEC 16.4% 16.1% 16.4% 0.3% Duke wins Nebraska Big Ten 18.5% 18.4% 18.7% 0.3% Duke wins Texas Tech Big 12 76.2% 76.4% 76.1% 0.3% North Carolina wins Alabama SEC 77.1% 77.1% 76.9% 0.2% North Carolina wins