Virginia vs SMU CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 7 pregame analysis for Virginia at SMU . 2026-10-17 16:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #34. SMU -8.5.
Rooting Guide
National Impact
CFP Odds
Conference Standings
Projected CFP Bracket
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Path Current With win With loss CFP 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% Automatic bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% Conference title game 5.5% 11.2% 1.6%
SMU playoff pathsPath Current With win With loss CFP 2.9% 3.0% 1.5% Automatic bid 2.3% 2.4% 1.4% Conference title game 21.2% 27.0% 7.8%
Biggest non-participant CFP swings Notre Dame : 0.6% outcome swing; SMU winsWake Forest : 0.6% outcome swing; SMU winsJames Madison : 0.5% outcome swing; Virginia winsMiami : 0.5% outcome swing; Virginia winsNebraska : 0.5% outcome swing; SMU winsImpacts if Virginia wins Notre Dame : -0.5% change; SMU winsUtah : 0.5% change; Virginia winsWake Forest : -0.5% change; SMU winsMiami : 0.4% change; Virginia winsUCLA : 0.4% change; Virginia winsBiggest modeled CFP impacts This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
Team Conference Current Virginia wins SMU wins Swing Better outcome SMU ACC 2.9% 1.5% 3.0% 1.5% SMU wins Notre Dame FBS Independents 98.4% 97.9% 98.5% 0.6% SMU wins Wake Forest ACC 14.7% 14.2% 14.8% 0.6% SMU wins James Madison Sun Belt 9.9% 10.2% 9.7% 0.5% Virginia wins Miami ACC 95.1% 95.5% 95.0% 0.5% Virginia wins Nebraska Big Ten 18.5% 18.3% 18.8% 0.5% SMU wins Texas Tech Big 12 76.2% 76.4% 75.9% 0.5% Virginia wins UCLA Big Ten 25.8% 26.2% 25.7% 0.5% Virginia wins Utah Big 12 59.3% 59.8% 59.3% 0.5% Virginia wins Virginia ACC 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% Virginia wins USC Big Ten 18.7% 19.1% 18.7% 0.4% Virginia wins BYU Big 12 36.5% 36.8% 36.5% 0.3% Virginia wins Missouri SEC 16.4% 16.3% 16.6% 0.3% SMU wins Pittsburgh ACC 2.0% 1.8% 2.1% 0.3% SMU wins Texas SEC 83.7% 83.9% 83.6% 0.3% Virginia wins Kentucky SEC 13.9% 14.1% 13.9% 0.2% Virginia wins LSU SEC 18.1% 18.2% 18.0% 0.2% Virginia wins Alabama SEC 77.1% 77.2% 77.1% 0.1% Virginia wins Arizona Big 12 5.7% 5.6% 5.7% 0.1% SMU wins Army American Athletic 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% SMU wins