California vs NC State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for California at NC State. 2026-10-31 16:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #35. Line unavailable.
California playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NC State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- UCLA: 3.3% outcome swing; California wins
- Alabama: 0.8% outcome swing; NC State wins
- Louisville: 0.5% outcome swing; NC State wins
- SMU: 0.5% outcome swing; California wins
- Utah: 0.5% outcome swing; NC State wins
Impacts if California wins
Impacts if NC State wins
- UCLA: -0.7% change; California wins
- Alabama: 0.3% change; NC State wins
- Wake Forest: 0.3% change; NC State wins
- Houston: 0.2% change; NC State wins
- Kentucky: 0.2% change; NC State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | California wins | NC State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | Big Ten | 44.3% | 46.9% | 43.6% | 3.3% | California wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 49.4% | 50.2% | 0.8% | NC State wins |
| Louisville | ACC | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 0.5% | NC State wins |
| SMU | ACC | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 0.5% | California wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 71.7% | 71.3% | 71.8% | 0.5% | NC State wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 82.0% | 81.6% | 82.0% | 0.4% | NC State wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 37.6% | 38.0% | 0.4% | NC State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 50.5% | 50.9% | 0.4% | NC State wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 14.2% | 14.1% | 14.5% | 0.4% | NC State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 44.5% | 44.8% | 0.3% | NC State wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 0.3% | California wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 37.5% | 37.0% | 37.3% | 0.3% | NC State wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 0.3% | California wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.0% | 20.3% | 0.3% | NC State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 24.1% | 23.9% | 0.2% | California wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 63.8% | 63.7% | 63.9% | 0.2% | NC State wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 91.9% | 92.1% | 91.9% | 0.2% | California wins |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | NC State wins |
| Memphis | American Athletic | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | California wins |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 0.2% | NC State wins |