SMU vs Syracuse CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for SMU at Syracuse. 2026-10-31 16:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #23. SMU -9.5.
SMU playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 8.1% | 9.4% | 3.5% |
| At-large | 3.1% | 3.9% | 0.3% |
| Automatic bid | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.2% |
| Conference title game | 41.3% | 46.2% | 24.4% |
Syracuse playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- LSU: 1.0% outcome swing; Syracuse wins
- Louisville: 1.0% outcome swing; Syracuse wins
- Miami: 1.0% outcome swing; SMU wins
- Houston: 0.8% outcome swing; Syracuse wins
- BYU: 0.7% outcome swing; Syracuse wins
Impacts if SMU wins
Impacts if Syracuse wins
- BYU: 0.9% change; Syracuse wins
- Louisville: 0.9% change; Syracuse wins
- Miami: -0.9% change; SMU wins
- LSU: 0.8% change; Syracuse wins
- Houston: 0.7% change; Syracuse wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | SMU wins | Syracuse wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | ACC | 8.1% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 5.9% | SMU wins |
| Louisville | ACC | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 1.0% | Syracuse wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 44.7% | 45.7% | 1.0% | Syracuse wins |
| Miami | ACC | 97.8% | 97.9% | 96.9% | 1.0% | SMU wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 37.6% | 38.4% | 0.8% | Syracuse wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 62.3% | 63.0% | 0.7% | Syracuse wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 50.8% | 51.4% | 0.6% | Syracuse wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 11.7% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 0.5% | Syracuse wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 71.7% | 71.5% | 72.0% | 0.5% | Syracuse wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.1% | 20.5% | 0.4% | Syracuse wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 23.8% | 24.1% | 0.3% | Syracuse wins |
| Florida | SEC | 18.7% | 18.7% | 19.0% | 0.3% | Syracuse wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 37.6% | 37.9% | 0.3% | Syracuse wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 0.3% | Syracuse wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 49.6% | 49.8% | 0.2% | Syracuse wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 0.2% | SMU wins |
| North Carolina | ACC | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | Syracuse wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 92.3% | 92.3% | 92.1% | 0.2% | SMU wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 0.2% | Syracuse wins |
| Auburn | SEC | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | Syracuse wins |