Clemson vs Florida State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 9 pregame analysis for Clemson at Florida State. 2026-10-31 23:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #30. Florida State -5.5.

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Clemson playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.1%0.2%0.0%
Automatic bid0.1%0.2%0.0%
Conference title game0.8%2.9%0.2%

Florida State playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.2%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Alabama: 1.8% outcome swing; Florida State wins
  2. LSU: 1.5% outcome swing; Clemson wins
  3. SMU: 1.3% outcome swing; Florida State wins
  4. BYU: 0.6% outcome swing; Clemson wins
  5. Houston: 0.5% outcome swing; Clemson wins

Impacts if Clemson wins

  1. LSU: 1.4% change; Clemson wins
  2. Alabama: -1.3% change; Florida State wins
  3. SMU: -1.1% change; Florida State wins
  4. Utah: 0.5% change; Clemson wins
  5. BYU: 0.4% change; Clemson wins

Impacts if Florida State wins

  1. Alabama: 0.5% change; Florida State wins
  2. Indiana: -0.3% change; Clemson wins
  3. Arizona: 0.2% change; Florida State wins
  4. BYU: -0.2% change; Clemson wins
  5. Ole Miss: 0.2% change; Florida State wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentClemson winsFlorida State winsSwingBetter outcome
AlabamaSEC49.9%48.6%50.4%1.8%Florida State wins
LSUSEC44.9%46.3%44.8%1.5%Clemson wins
SMUACC8.1%7.0%8.3%1.3%Florida State wins
BYUBig 1262.1%62.5%61.9%0.6%Clemson wins
HoustonBig 1237.7%38.1%37.6%0.5%Clemson wins
IndianaBig Ten91.9%92.0%91.6%0.4%Clemson wins
LouisvilleACC2.6%2.2%2.6%0.4%Florida State wins
TennesseeSEC11.7%11.9%11.5%0.4%Clemson wins
UtahBig 1271.7%72.2%71.8%0.4%Clemson wins
FloridaSEC18.7%18.4%18.7%0.3%Florida State wins
KentuckySEC37.8%37.6%37.9%0.3%Florida State wins
New MexicoMountain West3.2%2.9%3.2%0.3%Florida State wins
TexasSEC62.7%63.0%62.7%0.3%Clemson wins
Wake ForestACC14.2%14.0%14.3%0.3%Florida State wins
ClemsonACC0.1%0.2%0.0%0.2%Clemson wins
MiamiACC97.8%97.6%97.8%0.2%Florida State wins
Notre DameFBS Independents95.3%95.4%95.2%0.2%Clemson wins
South CarolinaSEC0.6%0.7%0.5%0.2%Clemson wins
UCLABig Ten44.3%44.4%44.2%0.2%Clemson wins
USCBig Ten6.2%6.3%6.1%0.2%Clemson wins