Miami vs North Carolina CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Miami at North Carolina. 2026-10-31 23:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #26. Miami -16.5.
Miami playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 97.8% | 98.5% | 87.7% |
| At-large | 14.0% | 14.5% | 6.9% |
| Automatic bid | 83.8% | 84.0% | 80.8% |
| Conference title game | 99.2% | 99.7% | 95.4% |
North Carolina playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.5% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.4% | 3.7% | 0.2% |
| Automatic bid | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.2% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Wake Forest: 2.1% outcome swing; Miami wins
- Louisville: 1.3% outcome swing; North Carolina wins
- BYU: 1.2% outcome swing; North Carolina wins
- Kentucky: 0.7% outcome swing; North Carolina wins
- SMU: 0.6% outcome swing; Miami wins
Impacts if Miami wins
Impacts if North Carolina wins
- Wake Forest: -2.0% change; Miami wins
- Louisville: 1.3% change; North Carolina wins
- BYU: 1.2% change; North Carolina wins
- Utah: 0.7% change; North Carolina wins
- SMU: -0.6% change; Miami wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Miami wins | North Carolina wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | ACC | 97.8% | 98.5% | 87.7% | 10.8% | Miami wins |
| North Carolina | ACC | 0.5% | 0.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | North Carolina wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 14.2% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 2.1% | Miami wins |
| Louisville | ACC | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% | North Carolina wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 62.1% | 63.3% | 1.2% | North Carolina wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 37.6% | 38.3% | 0.7% | North Carolina wins |
| SMU | ACC | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 0.6% | Miami wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 71.7% | 71.8% | 72.4% | 0.6% | North Carolina wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 11.7% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 0.5% | North Carolina wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 50.9% | 51.4% | 0.5% | North Carolina wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 24.0% | 24.4% | 0.4% | North Carolina wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 44.9% | 45.3% | 0.4% | North Carolina wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 0.4% | North Carolina wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 49.6% | 49.9% | 0.3% | North Carolina wins |
| Duke | ACC | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | North Carolina wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.3% | Miami wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 92.3% | 92.2% | 92.5% | 0.3% | North Carolina wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.7% | 62.7% | 63.0% | 0.3% | North Carolina wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 64.0% | 0.2% | North Carolina wins |
| Florida | SEC | 18.7% | 18.6% | 18.8% | 0.2% | North Carolina wins |