Virginia vs Wake Forest CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Virginia at Wake Forest. 2026-10-31 19:45 UTC. National Impact rank: #19. Wake Forest -13.5.
Virginia playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Wake Forest playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 14.2% | 15.6% | 6.8% |
| At-large | 5.2% | 6.1% | 0.1% |
| Automatic bid | 9.0% | 9.6% | 6.8% |
| Conference title game | 49.9% | 53.1% | 33.7% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Louisville: 1.8% outcome swing; Virginia wins
- Miami: 1.5% outcome swing; Wake Forest wins
- Houston: 1.4% outcome swing; Virginia wins
- Utah: 1.4% outcome swing; Virginia wins
- Alabama: 1.0% outcome swing; Virginia wins
Impacts if Virginia wins
- Houston: 1.4% change; Virginia wins
- Miami: -1.4% change; Wake Forest wins
- Utah: 1.3% change; Virginia wins
- BYU: 1.0% change; Virginia wins
- Louisville: 1.0% change; Virginia wins
Impacts if Wake Forest wins
- Louisville: -0.8% change; Virginia wins
- Alabama: -0.2% change; Virginia wins
- Arizona: -0.2% change; Virginia wins
- Kentucky: 0.2% change; Wake Forest wins
- Army: -0.1% change; Either outcome
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Virginia wins | Wake Forest wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake Forest | ACC | 14.2% | 6.8% | 15.6% | 8.8% | Wake Forest wins |
| Louisville | ACC | 2.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | Virginia wins |
| Miami | ACC | 97.8% | 96.4% | 97.9% | 1.5% | Wake Forest wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 39.1% | 37.7% | 1.4% | Virginia wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 71.7% | 73.0% | 71.6% | 1.4% | Virginia wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 50.7% | 49.7% | 1.0% | Virginia wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 63.1% | 62.1% | 1.0% | Virginia wins |
| SMU | ACC | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 0.9% | Wake Forest wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 51.8% | 50.9% | 0.9% | Virginia wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 37.3% | 38.0% | 0.7% | Wake Forest wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 45.6% | 44.9% | 0.7% | Virginia wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 37.5% | 38.1% | 37.5% | 0.6% | Virginia wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 24.3% | 23.8% | 0.5% | Virginia wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 63.8% | 64.1% | 63.7% | 0.4% | Virginia wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 91.9% | 92.1% | 91.8% | 0.3% | Virginia wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 0.3% | Wake Forest wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 0.3% | Virginia wins |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 0.3% | Virginia wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 11.7% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 0.3% | Virginia wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.7% | 63.0% | 62.7% | 0.3% | Virginia wins |