Duke vs NC State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Duke at NC State. 2026-11-07 17:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #47. Line unavailable.
Duke playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
NC State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Ohio State: 0.7% outcome swing; Duke wins
- Arizona: 0.5% outcome swing; Duke wins
- Alabama: 0.4% outcome swing; NC State wins
- Florida: 0.4% outcome swing; NC State wins
- LSU: 0.3% outcome swing; NC State wins
Impacts if Duke wins
- Ohio State: 0.3% change; Duke wins
- Arizona: 0.2% change; Duke wins
- Ole Miss: -0.2% change; NC State wins
- Alabama: -0.1% change; NC State wins
- Boise State: 0.1% change; Duke wins
Impacts if NC State wins
- Florida: 0.4% change; NC State wins
- Ohio State: -0.4% change; Duke wins
- Alabama: 0.3% change; NC State wins
- Arizona: -0.3% change; Duke wins
- LSU: 0.3% change; NC State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Duke wins | NC State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 70.1% | 69.4% | 0.7% | Duke wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 0.5% | Duke wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 76.4% | 76.8% | 0.4% | NC State wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 0.4% | NC State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 49.1% | 49.4% | 0.3% | NC State wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 50.2% | 50.5% | 0.3% | NC State wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 62.1% | 62.4% | 0.3% | NC State wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 45.5% | 45.2% | 0.3% | Duke wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 84.9% | 85.1% | 0.2% | NC State wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 0.2% | Duke wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 26.3% | 26.2% | 26.4% | 0.2% | NC State wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.7% | 98.7% | 98.5% | 0.2% | Duke wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 87.7% | 87.5% | 0.2% | Duke wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 44.8% | 45.0% | 0.2% | NC State wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 0.2% | Duke wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 83.4% | 83.5% | 83.3% | 0.2% | Duke wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.1% | 19.9% | 0.2% | Duke wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 56.9% | 56.8% | 0.1% | Duke wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 51.4% | 51.5% | 0.1% | NC State wins |
| Duke | ACC | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | Duke wins |