Virginia Tech vs SMU CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Virginia Tech at SMU. 2026-11-07 00:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #25. SMU -6.5.
Virginia Tech playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
SMU playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 2.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Automatic bid | 2.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Conference title game | 18.3% | 22.9% | 2.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Notre Dame: 2.4% outcome swing; SMU wins
- Wake Forest: 1.0% outcome swing; Virginia Tech wins
- Texas: 0.5% outcome swing; Virginia Tech wins
- Texas Tech: 0.5% outcome swing; Virginia Tech wins
- Indiana: 0.4% outcome swing; Virginia Tech wins
Impacts if Virginia Tech wins
- Notre Dame: -2.0% change; SMU wins
- Texas Tech: 0.6% change; Virginia Tech wins
- Wake Forest: 0.6% change; Virginia Tech wins
- Clemson: 0.3% change; Virginia Tech wins
- Indiana: 0.3% change; Virginia Tech wins
Impacts if SMU wins
- Notre Dame: 0.4% change; SMU wins
- Wake Forest: -0.4% change; Virginia Tech wins
- Houston: 0.2% change; SMU wins
- Louisville: -0.2% change; Virginia Tech wins
- LSU: -0.2% change; Virginia Tech wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Virginia Tech wins | SMU wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 85.7% | 88.1% | 2.4% | SMU wins |
| SMU | ACC | 2.0% | 0.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | SMU wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 45.9% | 44.9% | 1.0% | Virginia Tech wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 62.5% | 62.0% | 0.5% | Virginia Tech wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 45.4% | 44.9% | 0.5% | Virginia Tech wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 89.2% | 88.8% | 0.4% | Virginia Tech wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 0.4% | Virginia Tech wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 51.6% | 51.3% | 0.3% | Virginia Tech wins |
| Clemson | ACC | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | Virginia Tech wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 85.1% | 84.9% | 0.2% | Virginia Tech wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 49.1% | 48.9% | 0.2% | Virginia Tech wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.7% | 98.5% | 98.7% | 0.2% | SMU wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 70.0% | 69.8% | 0.2% | Virginia Tech wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 83.4% | 83.5% | 83.3% | 0.2% | Virginia Tech wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 0.1% | Virginia Tech wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 56.9% | 56.8% | 0.1% | Virginia Tech wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 0.1% | Virginia Tech wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 37.2% | 37.3% | 0.1% | SMU wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 0.1% | Virginia Tech wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 26.3% | 26.4% | 26.3% | 0.1% | Virginia Tech wins |