Merrimack vs Wake Forest CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Merrimack at Wake Forest. 2026-11-07 20:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #16. Line unavailable.
Merrimack path evidence is unavailable for this non-FBS participant.
Wake Forest playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 45.3% | 48.0% | 20.1% |
| At-large | 25.7% | 27.9% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 19.6% | 19.6% | 19.6% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- LSU: 3.1% outcome swing; Merrimack wins
- Ole Miss: 2.3% outcome swing; Merrimack wins
- Texas Tech: 2.2% outcome swing; Merrimack wins
- Ohio State: 2.1% outcome swing; Merrimack wins
- Tennessee: 2.0% outcome swing; Merrimack wins
Impacts if Merrimack wins
- LSU: 3.0% change; Merrimack wins
- Ole Miss: 2.4% change; Merrimack wins
- Tennessee: 2.0% change; Merrimack wins
- Ohio State: 1.9% change; Merrimack wins
- Texas Tech: 1.9% change; Merrimack wins
Impacts if Wake Forest wins
- Houston: -0.4% change; Merrimack wins
- Missouri: -0.3% change; Merrimack wins
- Texas Tech: -0.3% change; Merrimack wins
- Iowa: -0.2% change; Merrimack wins
- New Mexico: -0.2% change; Merrimack wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Merrimack wins | Wake Forest wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 20.1% | 48.0% | 27.9% | Wake Forest wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 52.1% | 49.0% | 3.1% | Merrimack wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 52.8% | 50.5% | 2.3% | Merrimack wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 46.7% | 44.5% | 2.2% | Merrimack wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 71.7% | 69.6% | 2.1% | Merrimack wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 28.2% | 26.2% | 2.0% | Merrimack wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 78.0% | 76.4% | 1.6% | Merrimack wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 52.9% | 51.3% | 1.6% | Merrimack wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 88.9% | 87.5% | 1.4% | Merrimack wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 38.0% | 36.7% | 1.3% | Merrimack wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 1.1% | Merrimack wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 63.2% | 62.2% | 1.0% | Merrimack wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 0.9% | Merrimack wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 0.9% | Merrimack wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.1% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 0.9% | Merrimack wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 83.4% | 84.1% | 83.2% | 0.9% | Merrimack wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 85.6% | 84.8% | 0.8% | Merrimack wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 89.6% | 88.8% | 0.8% | Merrimack wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 46.3% | 45.5% | 0.8% | Merrimack wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 0.7% | Merrimack wins |