Miami vs Notre Dame CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Miami at Notre Dame. 2026-11-08 00:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #7. Notre Dame -3.5.
Miami playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 98.7% | 99.9% | 98.2% |
| At-large | 22.4% | 23.5% | 21.8% |
| Automatic bid | 76.3% | 76.3% | 76.3% |
Notre Dame playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 87.7% | 99.2% | 70.2% |
| At-large | 87.7% | 98.7% | 69.7% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- LSU: 3.5% outcome swing; Miami wins
- Alabama: 3.3% outcome swing; Miami wins
- Wake Forest: 3.0% outcome swing; Miami wins
- Tennessee: 2.7% outcome swing; Miami wins
- Ole Miss: 2.4% outcome swing; Miami wins
Impacts if Miami wins
- LSU: 2.1% change; Miami wins
- Alabama: 1.9% change; Miami wins
- Tennessee: 1.9% change; Miami wins
- Wake Forest: 1.9% change; Miami wins
- BYU: -1.5% change; Notre Dame wins
Impacts if Notre Dame wins
- Alabama: -1.4% change; Miami wins
- LSU: -1.4% change; Miami wins
- Wake Forest: -1.1% change; Miami wins
- Ole Miss: -0.9% change; Miami wins
- UCLA: -0.9% change; Miami wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Miami wins | Notre Dame wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 70.2% | 99.2% | 29.0% | Notre Dame wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 51.2% | 47.7% | 3.5% | Miami wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 78.4% | 75.1% | 3.3% | Miami wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 47.2% | 44.2% | 3.0% | Miami wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 28.1% | 25.4% | 2.7% | Miami wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 51.9% | 49.5% | 2.4% | Miami wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 49.9% | 52.1% | 2.2% | Notre Dame wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 90.0% | 88.1% | 1.9% | Miami wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.7% | 99.9% | 98.2% | 1.7% | Miami wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 38.2% | 36.7% | 1.5% | Miami wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 45.6% | 44.3% | 1.3% | Miami wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 63.1% | 61.9% | 1.2% | Miami wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 1.1% | Miami wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 1.0% | Miami wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 0.9% | Miami wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 45.4% | 44.6% | 0.8% | Miami wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 83.4% | 83.6% | 82.8% | 0.8% | Miami wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 0.7% | Miami wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 85.3% | 84.6% | 0.7% | Miami wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 18.3% | 17.6% | 0.7% | Miami wins |