North Carolina vs UConn CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for North Carolina at UConn. 2026-11-07 17:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #39. Line unavailable.
North Carolina playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Automatic bid | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
UConn playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Notre Dame: 2.6% outcome swing; North Carolina wins
- Wake Forest: 1.0% outcome swing; North Carolina wins
- Miami: 0.5% outcome swing; North Carolina wins
- New Mexico: 0.5% outcome swing; UConn wins
- Indiana: 0.4% outcome swing; UConn wins
Impacts if North Carolina wins
- Notre Dame: 0.4% change; North Carolina wins
- New Mexico: -0.2% change; UConn wins
- Wake Forest: 0.2% change; North Carolina wins
- Alabama: 0.1% change; UConn wins
- Boise State: 0.1% change; North Carolina wins
Impacts if UConn wins
- Notre Dame: -2.2% change; North Carolina wins
- Wake Forest: -0.8% change; North Carolina wins
- Miami: -0.4% change; North Carolina wins
- Ohio State: 0.4% change; UConn wins
- Alabama: 0.3% change; UConn wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | North Carolina wins | UConn wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 88.1% | 85.5% | 2.6% | North Carolina wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 45.5% | 44.5% | 1.0% | North Carolina wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.7% | 98.8% | 98.3% | 0.5% | North Carolina wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 17.9% | 18.4% | 0.5% | UConn wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 88.8% | 89.2% | 0.4% | UConn wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 69.8% | 70.2% | 0.4% | UConn wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 45.4% | 45.8% | 0.4% | UConn wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 49.0% | 49.3% | 0.3% | UConn wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 26.1% | 26.4% | 0.3% | UConn wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 0.3% | UConn wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 76.6% | 76.8% | 0.2% | UConn wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 51.5% | 51.7% | 0.2% | UConn wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 37.1% | 37.3% | 0.2% | UConn wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 0.2% | UConn wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 0.2% | UConn wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 62.1% | 62.3% | 0.2% | UConn wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 44.8% | 45.0% | 0.2% | UConn wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.1% | 19.9% | 0.2% | North Carolina wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 56.9% | 56.8% | 0.1% | North Carolina wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 84.9% | 85.0% | 0.1% | UConn wins |