Florida State vs Pittsburgh CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 11 pregame analysis for Florida State at Pittsburgh. 2026-11-14 00:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #42. Pittsburgh -3.5.

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Florida State playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.0%0.0%

Pittsburgh playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.1%0.1%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Tennessee: 0.6% outcome swing; Florida State wins
  2. Alabama: 0.5% outcome swing; Florida State wins
  3. Texas: 0.4% outcome swing; Florida State wins
  4. Arizona: 0.3% outcome swing; Pittsburgh wins
  5. BYU: 0.3% outcome swing; Pittsburgh wins

Impacts if Florida State wins

  1. Alabama: 0.3% change; Florida State wins
  2. Tennessee: 0.3% change; Florida State wins
  3. Texas: 0.3% change; Florida State wins
  4. Arizona: -0.2% change; Pittsburgh wins
  5. BYU: -0.2% change; Pittsburgh wins

Impacts if Pittsburgh wins

  1. Tennessee: -0.3% change; Florida State wins
  2. Alabama: -0.2% change; Florida State wins
  3. Iowa: 0.2% change; Pittsburgh wins
  4. Arizona: 0.1% change; Pittsburgh wins
  5. Boise State: 0.1% change; Pittsburgh wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentFlorida State winsPittsburgh winsSwingBetter outcome
TennesseeSEC53.9%54.2%53.6%0.6%Florida State wins
AlabamaSEC96.6%96.9%96.4%0.5%Florida State wins
TexasSEC73.4%73.7%73.3%0.4%Florida State wins
ArizonaBig 1217.3%17.1%17.4%0.3%Pittsburgh wins
BYUBig 1242.3%42.1%42.4%0.3%Pittsburgh wins
IowaBig Ten24.7%24.6%24.9%0.3%Pittsburgh wins
Ole MissSEC11.5%11.7%11.4%0.3%Florida State wins
Boise StatePac-1266.4%66.3%66.5%0.2%Pittsburgh wins
LSUSEC18.7%18.8%18.6%0.2%Florida State wins
Ohio StateBig Ten21.3%21.1%21.3%0.2%Pittsburgh wins
UtahBig 1294.2%94.0%94.2%0.2%Pittsburgh wins
Wake ForestACC45.8%45.7%45.9%0.2%Pittsburgh wins
HoustonBig 1245.3%45.3%45.4%0.1%Pittsburgh wins
IndianaBig Ten82.0%82.0%82.1%0.1%Pittsburgh wins
KentuckySEC13.4%13.5%13.4%0.1%Florida State wins
LibertyConference USA3.2%3.2%3.1%0.1%Florida State wins
MiamiACC98.4%98.4%98.5%0.1%Pittsburgh wins
New MexicoMountain West27.9%27.9%27.8%0.1%Florida State wins
North TexasAmerican Athletic2.4%2.4%2.5%0.1%Pittsburgh wins
OregonBig Ten28.3%28.3%28.4%0.1%Pittsburgh wins