Boston College vs Notre Dame CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 11 pregame analysis for Boston College at Notre Dame. 2026-11-14 20:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #31. Notre Dame -31.5.

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Boston College playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%

Notre Dame playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP99.4%99.6%87.4%
At-large99.4%99.5%87.3%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. BYU: 3.2% outcome swing; Notre Dame wins
  2. Ole Miss: 1.6% outcome swing; Boston College wins
  3. Texas: 1.5% outcome swing; Boston College wins
  4. Oregon: 1.3% outcome swing; Boston College wins
  5. Tennessee: 1.3% outcome swing; Boston College wins

Impacts if Boston College wins

  1. BYU: -3.2% change; Notre Dame wins
  2. Ole Miss: 1.5% change; Boston College wins
  3. Texas: 1.5% change; Boston College wins
  4. Oregon: 1.3% change; Boston College wins
  5. Tennessee: 1.3% change; Boston College wins

Impacts if Notre Dame wins

  1. Ohio State: -0.1% change; Boston College wins
  2. Ole Miss: -0.1% change; Boston College wins
  3. Air Force: 0.0% change; Either outcome
  4. Akron: 0.0% change; Either outcome
  5. Alabama: 0.0% change; Boston College wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentBoston College winsNotre Dame winsSwingBetter outcome
Notre DameFBS Independents99.4%87.4%99.6%12.2%Notre Dame wins
BYUBig 1242.3%39.1%42.3%3.2%Notre Dame wins
Ole MissSEC11.5%13.0%11.4%1.6%Boston College wins
TexasSEC73.4%74.9%73.4%1.5%Boston College wins
OregonBig Ten28.3%29.6%28.3%1.3%Boston College wins
TennesseeSEC53.9%55.2%53.9%1.3%Boston College wins
ArizonaBig 1217.3%18.4%17.3%1.1%Boston College wins
IndianaBig Ten82.0%83.1%82.0%1.1%Boston College wins
LSUSEC18.7%19.8%18.7%1.1%Boston College wins
IowaBig Ten24.7%25.6%24.7%0.9%Boston College wins
Ohio StateBig Ten21.3%22.0%21.2%0.8%Boston College wins
Wake ForestACC45.8%46.6%45.8%0.8%Boston College wins
HoustonBig 1245.3%46.0%45.3%0.7%Boston College wins
KentuckySEC13.4%14.0%13.4%0.6%Boston College wins
Texas TechBig 1234.9%35.4%34.9%0.5%Boston College wins
UCLABig Ten65.3%65.8%65.3%0.5%Boston College wins
AlabamaSEC96.6%96.9%96.6%0.3%Boston College wins
UtahBig 1294.2%94.5%94.2%0.3%Boston College wins
MiamiACC98.4%98.6%98.4%0.2%Boston College wins
New MexicoMountain West27.9%28.1%27.9%0.2%Boston College wins