California vs Virginia CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for California at Virginia. 2026-11-14 20:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #59. Line unavailable.
California playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Virginia playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- UCLA: 0.8% outcome swing; California wins
- Arizona: 0.3% outcome swing; Virginia wins
- BYU: 0.3% outcome swing; Virginia wins
- New Mexico: 0.3% outcome swing; California wins
- Iowa: 0.2% outcome swing; California wins
Impacts if California wins
Impacts if Virginia wins
- UCLA: -0.2% change; California wins
- Arizona: 0.1% change; Virginia wins
- BYU: 0.1% change; Virginia wins
- New Mexico: -0.1% change; California wins
- Oregon: 0.1% change; California wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | California wins | Virginia wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.9% | 65.1% | 0.8% | California wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.1% | 17.4% | 0.3% | Virginia wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.1% | 42.4% | 0.3% | Virginia wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 28.1% | 27.8% | 0.3% | California wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.9% | 24.7% | 0.2% | California wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 0.2% | Virginia wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 94.0% | 94.2% | 0.2% | Virginia wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.4% | 98.3% | 98.4% | 0.1% | Virginia wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.1% | California wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 21.4% | 21.3% | 0.1% | California wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 0.1% | Virginia wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.5% | 28.4% | 0.1% | California wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 0.1% | Virginia wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 53.7% | 53.8% | 0.1% | Virginia wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.5% | 73.4% | 0.1% | California wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 34.8% | 34.9% | 0.1% | Virginia wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 45.7% | 45.8% | 0.1% | Virginia wins |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Akron | Mid-American | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 96.6% | 96.6% | 0.0% | Either outcome |