Duke vs Miami CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 11 pregame analysis for Duke at Miami. 2026-11-14 17:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #26. Miami -15.5.

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Duke playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.4%2.1%0.0%
Automatic bid0.4%2.0%0.0%
Conference title game1.8%11.9%0.2%

Miami playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP98.4%99.7%91.3%
At-large20.8%21.4%13.5%
Automatic bid77.6%77.7%77.2%
Conference title game99.7%100.0%98.5%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Iowa: 1.3% outcome swing; Duke wins
  2. Texas: 0.9% outcome swing; Duke wins
  3. LSU: 0.7% outcome swing; Duke wins
  4. Oregon: 0.6% outcome swing; Duke wins
  5. Indiana: 0.4% outcome swing; Duke wins

Impacts if Duke wins

  1. Iowa: 1.1% change; Duke wins
  2. Texas: 0.9% change; Duke wins
  3. LSU: 0.6% change; Duke wins
  4. Oregon: 0.6% change; Duke wins
  5. Indiana: 0.4% change; Duke wins

Impacts if Miami wins

  1. Iowa: -0.2% change; Duke wins
  2. Tennessee: -0.2% change; Duke wins
  3. Wake Forest: 0.2% change; Miami wins
  4. Arizona: -0.1% change; Duke wins
  5. BYU: -0.1% change; Duke wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentDuke winsMiami winsSwingBetter outcome
MiamiACC98.4%91.3%99.7%8.4%Miami wins
DukeACC0.4%2.1%0.0%2.1%Duke wins
IowaBig Ten24.7%25.8%24.5%1.3%Duke wins
TexasSEC73.4%74.3%73.4%0.9%Duke wins
LSUSEC18.7%19.3%18.6%0.7%Duke wins
OregonBig Ten28.3%28.9%28.3%0.6%Duke wins
IndianaBig Ten82.0%82.4%82.0%0.4%Duke wins
Ohio StateBig Ten21.3%21.6%21.2%0.4%Duke wins
Ole MissSEC11.5%11.8%11.4%0.4%Duke wins
SMUACC3.1%2.8%3.2%0.4%Miami wins
TennesseeSEC53.9%54.1%53.7%0.4%Duke wins
UCLABig Ten65.3%65.6%65.2%0.4%Duke wins
ClemsonACC0.2%0.5%0.2%0.3%Duke wins
ArizonaBig 1217.3%17.4%17.2%0.2%Duke wins
LouisvilleACC1.8%1.9%1.7%0.2%Duke wins
New MexicoMountain West27.9%27.7%27.9%0.2%Miami wins
South CarolinaSEC10.6%10.7%10.5%0.2%Duke wins
USCBig Ten9.8%10.0%9.8%0.2%Duke wins
Wake ForestACC45.8%45.8%46.0%0.2%Miami wins
AlabamaSEC96.6%96.7%96.6%0.1%Duke wins