Louisville vs North Carolina CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Louisville at North Carolina. 2026-11-14 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #18. Louisville -2.5.
Louisville playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 1.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 1.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 10.7% | 17.2% | 0.3% |
North Carolina playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Wake Forest: 3.6% outcome swing; Louisville wins
- SMU: 2.6% outcome swing; North Carolina wins
- Ole Miss: 2.2% outcome swing; Louisville wins
- BYU: 1.0% outcome swing; North Carolina wins
- Arizona: 0.7% outcome swing; North Carolina wins
Impacts if Louisville wins
- Wake Forest: 1.2% change; Louisville wins
- SMU: -0.9% change; North Carolina wins
- Ole Miss: 0.7% change; Louisville wins
- Arizona: -0.5% change; North Carolina wins
- BYU: -0.5% change; North Carolina wins
Impacts if North Carolina wins
- Wake Forest: -2.4% change; Louisville wins
- SMU: 1.7% change; North Carolina wins
- Ole Miss: -1.5% change; Louisville wins
- BYU: 0.5% change; North Carolina wins
- Iowa: 0.5% change; North Carolina wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Louisville wins | North Carolina wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 47.0% | 43.4% | 3.6% | Louisville wins |
| Louisville | ACC | 1.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 2.7% | Louisville wins |
| SMU | ACC | 3.1% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 2.6% | North Carolina wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 2.2% | Louisville wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 41.8% | 42.8% | 1.0% | North Carolina wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 16.8% | 17.5% | 0.7% | North Carolina wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.5% | 25.2% | 0.7% | North Carolina wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 21.1% | 21.7% | 0.6% | North Carolina wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.1% | 28.7% | 0.6% | North Carolina wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.1% | 65.6% | 0.5% | North Carolina wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 18.6% | 19.0% | 0.4% | North Carolina wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.4% | 98.2% | 98.6% | 0.4% | North Carolina wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.5% | 73.1% | 0.4% | Louisville wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 45.4% | 45.7% | 0.3% | North Carolina wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 82.0% | 82.3% | 0.3% | North Carolina wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 13.4% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 0.3% | Louisville wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 34.9% | 35.2% | 0.3% | North Carolina wins |
| Clemson | ACC | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | North Carolina wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 94.1% | 94.3% | 0.2% | North Carolina wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 96.7% | 96.6% | 0.1% | Louisville wins |