Wake Forest vs SMU CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Wake Forest at SMU. 2026-11-14 17:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #1. Wake Forest -2.5.
Wake Forest playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 45.8% | 69.5% | 7.4% |
| At-large | 28.9% | 44.3% | 2.0% |
| Automatic bid | 16.9% | 23.8% | 4.1% |
| Conference title game | 61.6% | 93.0% | 16.3% |
SMU playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 3.1% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 3.1% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 22.0% | 53.5% | 0.2% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
Impacts if Wake Forest wins
Impacts if SMU wins
- Oregon: 3.8% change; SMU wins
- Ole Miss: 3.5% change; SMU wins
- Texas: 3.2% change; SMU wins
- Iowa: 3.0% change; SMU wins
- Louisville: 2.6% change; SMU wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Wake Forest wins | SMU wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 69.5% | 7.4% | 62.1% | Wake Forest wins |
| SMU | ACC | 3.1% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | SMU wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 26.5% | 32.1% | 5.6% | SMU wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 9.7% | 15.0% | 5.3% | SMU wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 51.4% | 56.4% | 5.0% | SMU wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 71.6% | 76.6% | 5.0% | SMU wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 23.0% | 27.7% | 4.7% | SMU wins |
| Louisville | ACC | 1.8% | 0.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | SMU wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 19.7% | 23.6% | 3.9% | SMU wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 17.5% | 21.0% | 3.5% | SMU wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 80.7% | 83.4% | 2.7% | SMU wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 16.4% | 19.0% | 2.6% | SMU wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 64.5% | 67.1% | 2.6% | SMU wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 41.3% | 43.8% | 2.5% | SMU wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 34.1% | 35.8% | 1.7% | SMU wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 93.7% | 95.2% | 1.5% | SMU wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 45.1% | 46.2% | 1.1% | SMU wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 96.3% | 97.3% | 1.0% | SMU wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 13.4% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 1.0% | SMU wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 0.6% | SMU wins |