Penn State vs Michigan CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 7 pregame analysis for Penn State at Michigan . 2026-10-17 19:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #15. Michigan -6.5.
Rooting Guide
National Impact
CFP Odds
Conference Standings
Projected CFP Bracket
Back to National Impact
Path Current With win With loss CFP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% At-large 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Automatic bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Conference title game 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Path Current With win With loss CFP 1.1% 2.1% 0.1% At-large 1.0% 1.9% 0.0% Automatic bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Conference title game 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Biggest non-participant CFP swings UCLA : 2.4% outcome swing; Michigan winsUSC : 2.1% outcome swing; Penn State winsIowa : 1.5% outcome swing; Michigan winsNorthwestern : 1.3% outcome swing; Penn State winsWisconsin : 1.0% outcome swing; Penn State winsImpacts if Penn State wins USC : 1.6% change; Penn State winsUCLA : -1.2% change; Michigan winsIndiana : -0.8% change; Michigan winsIowa : -0.8% change; Michigan winsNorthwestern : 0.6% change; Penn State winsImpacts if Michigan wins UCLA : 1.2% change; Michigan winsIowa : 0.7% change; Michigan winsNorthwestern : -0.7% change; Penn State winsWisconsin : -0.6% change; Penn State winsUSC : -0.5% change; Penn State winsBiggest modeled CFP impacts This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
Team Conference Current Penn State wins Michigan wins Swing Better outcome UCLA Big Ten 25.8% 24.6% 27.0% 2.4% Michigan wins USC Big Ten 18.7% 20.3% 18.2% 2.1% Penn State wins Michigan Big Ten 1.1% 0.1% 2.1% 2.0% Michigan wins Iowa Big Ten 18.4% 17.6% 19.1% 1.5% Michigan wins Northwestern Big Ten 9.2% 9.8% 8.5% 1.3% Penn State wins Wisconsin Big Ten 7.6% 8.0% 7.0% 1.0% Penn State wins Alabama SEC 77.1% 77.4% 76.7% 0.7% Penn State wins Indiana Big Ten 87.5% 86.7% 87.4% 0.7% Michigan wins BYU Big 12 36.5% 37.0% 36.4% 0.6% Penn State wins Ohio State Big Ten 78.7% 78.5% 79.0% 0.5% Michigan wins LSU SEC 18.1% 18.3% 17.9% 0.4% Penn State wins Oregon Big Ten 17.9% 17.7% 18.1% 0.4% Michigan wins Tennessee SEC 14.7% 15.1% 14.7% 0.4% Penn State wins James Madison Sun Belt 9.9% 10.1% 9.8% 0.3% Penn State wins Missouri SEC 16.4% 16.5% 16.2% 0.3% Penn State wins Wake Forest ACC 14.7% 14.8% 14.5% 0.3% Penn State wins Arizona Big 12 5.7% 5.6% 5.8% 0.2% Michigan wins Baylor Big 12 6.4% 6.5% 6.3% 0.2% Penn State wins Boise State Pac-12 69.5% 69.4% 69.6% 0.2% Michigan wins Houston Big 12 42.0% 41.7% 41.9% 0.2% Michigan wins