Northwestern vs Michigan State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 7 pregame analysis for Northwestern at Michigan State . 2026-10-17 16:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #12. Northwestern -8.5.
Rooting Guide
National Impact
CFP Odds
Conference Standings
Projected CFP Bracket
Back to National Impact
Path Current With win With loss CFP 9.2% 10.3% 1.7% At-large 8.8% 10.2% 1.9% Automatic bid 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% Conference title game 1.8% 2.0% 0.6%
Path Current With win With loss CFP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% At-large 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Automatic bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Conference title game 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Biggest non-participant CFP swings UCLA : 3.7% outcome swing; Michigan State winsNebraska : 2.3% outcome swing; Michigan State winsIndiana : 1.8% outcome swing; Northwestern winsIowa : 1.5% outcome swing; Northwestern winsKentucky : 1.2% outcome swing; Michigan State winsImpacts if Northwestern wins UCLA : -0.7% change; Michigan State winsIndiana : 0.4% change; Northwestern winsNebraska : -0.4% change; Michigan State winsAlabama : -0.3% change; Michigan State winsArizona : 0.2% change; Northwestern winsImpacts if Michigan State wins UCLA : 3.0% change; Michigan State winsNebraska : 1.9% change; Michigan State winsIowa : -1.5% change; Northwestern winsIndiana : -1.4% change; Northwestern winsUSC : 1.3% change; Michigan State winsBiggest modeled CFP impacts This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
Team Conference Current Northwestern wins Michigan State wins Swing Better outcome Northwestern Big Ten 9.2% 10.3% 1.7% 8.6% Northwestern wins UCLA Big Ten 25.8% 25.1% 28.8% 3.7% Michigan State wins Nebraska Big Ten 18.5% 18.1% 20.4% 2.3% Michigan State wins Indiana Big Ten 87.5% 87.9% 86.1% 1.8% Northwestern wins Iowa Big Ten 18.4% 18.4% 16.9% 1.5% Northwestern wins Kentucky SEC 13.9% 13.7% 14.9% 1.2% Michigan State wins USC Big Ten 18.7% 18.9% 20.0% 1.1% Michigan State wins Houston Big 12 42.0% 42.2% 41.4% 0.8% Northwestern wins Wisconsin Big Ten 7.6% 7.6% 8.4% 0.8% Michigan State wins BYU Big 12 36.5% 36.4% 37.1% 0.7% Michigan State wins Ohio State Big Ten 78.7% 78.8% 78.1% 0.7% Northwestern wins Missouri SEC 16.4% 16.3% 16.9% 0.6% Michigan State wins Alabama SEC 77.1% 76.8% 77.3% 0.5% Michigan State wins Notre Dame FBS Independents 98.4% 98.3% 98.8% 0.5% Michigan State wins Tennessee SEC 14.7% 14.6% 15.1% 0.5% Michigan State wins Oklahoma State Big 12 4.3% 4.2% 4.6% 0.4% Michigan State wins Wake Forest ACC 14.7% 14.7% 15.1% 0.4% Michigan State wins LSU SEC 18.1% 18.0% 18.3% 0.3% Michigan State wins Arizona Big 12 5.7% 5.9% 5.7% 0.2% Northwestern wins Texas SEC 83.7% 83.5% 83.7% 0.2% Michigan State wins