Wisconsin vs UCLA CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for Wisconsin at UCLA. 2026-10-17 04:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #5. UCLA -3.5.

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Wisconsin playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP7.6%12.7%1.8%
At-large6.4%11.9%2.7%
Automatic bid1.2%2.0%0.3%
Conference title game15.4%26.2%4.8%

UCLA playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP25.8%34.4%11.6%
At-large22.8%30.8%11.0%
Automatic bid3.0%4.0%1.0%
Conference title game19.5%29.8%6.4%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Iowa: 3.2% outcome swing; Wisconsin wins
  2. Kentucky: 1.2% outcome swing; Wisconsin wins
  3. Missouri: 1.1% outcome swing; Wisconsin wins
  4. Oregon: 1.1% outcome swing; UCLA wins
  5. Texas Tech: 1.1% outcome swing; Wisconsin wins

Impacts if Wisconsin wins

  1. Iowa: 2.4% change; Wisconsin wins
  2. Boise State: -0.8% change; UCLA wins
  3. Nebraska: 0.7% change; Wisconsin wins
  4. Texas Tech: 0.7% change; Wisconsin wins
  5. Alabama: 0.6% change; Wisconsin wins

Impacts if UCLA wins

  1. Iowa: -0.8% change; Wisconsin wins
  2. Houston: -0.7% change; Wisconsin wins
  3. Kentucky: -0.7% change; Wisconsin wins
  4. Missouri: -0.6% change; Wisconsin wins
  5. Oregon: 0.6% change; UCLA wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentWisconsin winsUCLA winsSwingBetter outcome
UCLABig Ten25.8%11.6%34.4%22.8%UCLA wins
WisconsinBig Ten7.6%12.7%1.8%10.9%Wisconsin wins
IowaBig Ten18.4%20.8%17.6%3.2%Wisconsin wins
KentuckySEC13.9%14.4%13.2%1.2%Wisconsin wins
MissouriSEC16.4%16.9%15.8%1.1%Wisconsin wins
OregonBig Ten17.9%17.4%18.5%1.1%UCLA wins
Texas TechBig 1276.2%76.9%75.8%1.1%Wisconsin wins
HoustonBig 1242.0%42.3%41.3%1.0%Wisconsin wins
TennesseeSEC14.7%15.1%14.1%1.0%Wisconsin wins
Boise StatePac-1269.5%68.7%69.6%0.9%UCLA wins
Notre DameFBS Independents98.4%98.9%98.0%0.9%Wisconsin wins
NebraskaBig Ten18.5%19.2%18.4%0.8%Wisconsin wins
UtahBig 1259.3%59.9%59.2%0.7%Wisconsin wins
AlabamaSEC77.1%77.7%77.2%0.5%Wisconsin wins
Ohio StateBig Ten78.7%79.1%78.6%0.5%Wisconsin wins
USCBig Ten18.7%18.8%19.3%0.5%UCLA wins
BaylorBig 126.4%6.6%6.2%0.4%Wisconsin wins
BYUBig 1236.5%36.9%36.5%0.4%Wisconsin wins
James MadisonSun Belt9.9%10.2%9.8%0.4%Wisconsin wins
Wake ForestACC14.7%14.9%14.5%0.4%Wisconsin wins