Minnesota vs Indiana CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 9 pregame analysis for Minnesota at Indiana. 2026-10-31 19:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #18. Indiana -20.5.

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Minnesota playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.1%0.4%0.1%
At-large0.1%0.2%0.1%
Automatic bid0.0%0.2%0.0%
Conference title game0.2%2.3%0.1%

Indiana playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP91.9%92.8%64.6%
At-large62.5%62.6%57.8%
Automatic bid29.4%29.6%6.2%
Conference title game67.5%68.3%14.4%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. UCLA: 3.8% outcome swing; Minnesota wins
  2. Alabama: 3.4% outcome swing; Minnesota wins
  3. BYU: 2.7% outcome swing; Minnesota wins
  4. LSU: 2.7% outcome swing; Minnesota wins
  5. Wisconsin: 2.2% outcome swing; Minnesota wins

Impacts if Minnesota wins

  1. UCLA: 3.8% change; Minnesota wins
  2. Alabama: 3.1% change; Minnesota wins
  3. BYU: 2.6% change; Minnesota wins
  4. LSU: 2.5% change; Minnesota wins
  5. Wisconsin: 2.2% change; Minnesota wins

Impacts if Indiana wins

  1. Alabama: -0.3% change; Minnesota wins
  2. Florida: -0.2% change; Minnesota wins
  3. LSU: -0.2% change; Minnesota wins
  4. Boise State: 0.1% change; Minnesota wins
  5. BYU: -0.1% change; Minnesota wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentMinnesota winsIndiana winsSwingBetter outcome
IndianaBig Ten91.9%64.6%92.8%28.2%Indiana wins
UCLABig Ten44.3%48.1%44.3%3.8%Minnesota wins
AlabamaSEC49.9%53.0%49.6%3.4%Minnesota wins
BYUBig 1262.1%64.7%62.0%2.7%Minnesota wins
LSUSEC44.9%47.4%44.7%2.7%Minnesota wins
WisconsinBig Ten1.5%3.7%1.5%2.2%Minnesota wins
HoustonBig 1237.7%39.6%37.7%1.9%Minnesota wins
ArizonaBig 1224.0%25.6%24.0%1.6%Minnesota wins
Texas TechBig 1250.9%52.5%50.9%1.6%Minnesota wins
UtahBig 1271.7%73.2%71.7%1.5%Minnesota wins
KentuckySEC37.8%39.0%37.7%1.3%Minnesota wins
Ole MissSEC37.5%38.8%37.5%1.3%Minnesota wins
TennesseeSEC11.7%12.8%11.7%1.1%Minnesota wins
Wake ForestACC14.2%15.3%14.2%1.1%Minnesota wins
GeorgiaSEC82.0%82.8%82.0%0.8%Minnesota wins
NebraskaBig Ten5.6%4.8%5.6%0.8%Indiana wins
USCBig Ten6.2%5.5%6.3%0.8%Indiana wins
Ohio StateBig Ten92.3%91.7%92.3%0.6%Indiana wins
Boise StatePac-1263.8%64.4%63.9%0.5%Minnesota wins
MissouriSEC4.7%5.2%4.7%0.5%Minnesota wins