Wisconsin vs Iowa CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Wisconsin at Iowa. 2026-10-31 16:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #12. Iowa -3.5.
Wisconsin playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 1.5% | 4.1% | 0.3% |
| Automatic bid | 1.1% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Conference title game | 7.5% | 14.8% | 2.6% |
Iowa playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 2.7% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 2.7% | 4.0% | 0.6% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- UCLA: 3.3% outcome swing; Wisconsin wins
- Nebraska: 1.9% outcome swing; Iowa wins
- USC: 1.5% outcome swing; Wisconsin wins
- Northwestern: 1.3% outcome swing; Iowa wins
- Notre Dame: 1.3% outcome swing; Wisconsin wins
Impacts if Wisconsin wins
- UCLA: 1.9% change; Wisconsin wins
- Nebraska: -1.0% change; Iowa wins
- USC: 1.0% change; Wisconsin wins
- BYU: -0.9% change; Iowa wins
- Notre Dame: 0.9% change; Wisconsin wins
Impacts if Iowa wins
- UCLA: -1.4% change; Wisconsin wins
- Nebraska: 0.9% change; Iowa wins
- Utah: 0.6% change; Iowa wins
- Houston: 0.5% change; Iowa wins
- Northwestern: 0.5% change; Iowa wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Wisconsin wins | Iowa wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 1.5% | 4.1% | 0.3% | 3.8% | Wisconsin wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 2.7% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | Iowa wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 44.3% | 46.2% | 42.9% | 3.3% | Wisconsin wins |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 1.9% | Iowa wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 1.5% | Wisconsin wins |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 13.5% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 1.3% | Iowa wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 95.3% | 96.2% | 94.9% | 1.3% | Wisconsin wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 61.2% | 62.2% | 1.0% | Iowa wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 92.3% | 91.8% | 92.8% | 1.0% | Iowa wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 71.7% | 71.3% | 72.3% | 1.0% | Iowa wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 23.7% | 24.4% | 0.7% | Iowa wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.7% | 62.6% | 63.0% | 0.4% | Iowa wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 63.8% | 63.7% | 64.0% | 0.3% | Iowa wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 37.9% | 38.2% | 0.3% | Iowa wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 91.9% | 92.0% | 91.7% | 0.3% | Wisconsin wins |
| Florida | SEC | 18.7% | 18.6% | 18.8% | 0.2% | Iowa wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 82.0% | 82.2% | 82.0% | 0.2% | Wisconsin wins |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | Wisconsin wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 45.2% | 45.0% | 0.2% | Wisconsin wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 37.5% | 37.6% | 37.4% | 0.2% | Wisconsin wins |