Illinois vs Maryland CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Illinois at Maryland. 2026-10-31 16:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #43. Line unavailable.
Illinois playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Maryland playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Northwestern: 1.2% outcome swing; Illinois wins
- USC: 1.0% outcome swing; Maryland wins
- Iowa: 0.7% outcome swing; Illinois wins
- BYU: 0.4% outcome swing; Maryland wins
- Nebraska: 0.3% outcome swing; Illinois wins
Impacts if Illinois wins
- Northwestern: 0.3% change; Illinois wins
- Boise State: 0.2% change; Illinois wins
- BYU: -0.2% change; Maryland wins
- Iowa: 0.2% change; Illinois wins
- James Madison: -0.2% change; Maryland wins
Impacts if Maryland wins
- Northwestern: -0.9% change; Illinois wins
- USC: 0.9% change; Maryland wins
- Iowa: -0.5% change; Illinois wins
- BYU: 0.2% change; Maryland wins
- Nebraska: -0.2% change; Illinois wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Illinois wins | Maryland wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 13.5% | 13.8% | 12.6% | 1.2% | Illinois wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 1.0% | Maryland wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | Illinois wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 61.9% | 62.3% | 0.4% | Maryland wins |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 0.3% | Illinois wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 11.7% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 0.3% | Maryland wins |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% | Maryland wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 63.8% | 64.0% | 63.8% | 0.2% | Illinois wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 82.0% | 81.9% | 82.1% | 0.2% | Maryland wins |
| Illinois | Big Ten | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | Illinois wins |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | Maryland wins |
| Louisville | ACC | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.2% | Illinois wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 44.8% | 45.0% | 0.2% | Maryland wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 50.9% | 51.1% | 0.2% | Maryland wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 44.3% | 44.4% | 44.2% | 0.2% | Illinois wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 49.8% | 49.9% | 0.1% | Maryland wins |
| Army | American Athletic | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 0.1% | Maryland wins |
| Auburn | SEC | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | Maryland wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 37.6% | 37.7% | 0.1% | Maryland wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 91.9% | 91.9% | 91.8% | 0.1% | Illinois wins |