Northwestern vs Oregon CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Northwestern at Oregon. 2026-10-31 19:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #2. Oregon -4.5.
Northwestern playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 13.5% | 33.5% | 4.0% |
| At-large | 12.8% | 33.0% | 4.3% |
| Automatic bid | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Conference title game | 2.2% | 4.0% | 0.5% |
Oregon playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 5.6% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 5.3% | 7.3% | 0.6% |
| Automatic bid | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- UCLA: 5.5% outcome swing; Oregon wins
- Boise State: 5.2% outcome swing; Oregon wins
- BYU: 3.0% outcome swing; Oregon wins
- UTSA: 2.0% outcome swing; Northwestern wins
- Indiana: 1.9% outcome swing; Northwestern wins
Impacts if Northwestern wins
- Boise State: -3.9% change; Oregon wins
- UCLA: -3.6% change; Oregon wins
- BYU: -1.6% change; Oregon wins
- UTSA: 1.3% change; Northwestern wins
- Indiana: 1.2% change; Northwestern wins
Impacts if Oregon wins
- UCLA: 1.9% change; Oregon wins
- BYU: 1.4% change; Oregon wins
- Boise State: 1.3% change; Oregon wins
- Houston: 1.1% change; Oregon wins
- Indiana: -0.7% change; Northwestern wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Northwestern wins | Oregon wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 13.5% | 33.5% | 4.0% | 29.5% | Northwestern wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 5.6% | 0.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | Oregon wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 44.3% | 40.7% | 46.2% | 5.5% | Oregon wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 63.8% | 59.9% | 65.1% | 5.2% | Oregon wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 60.5% | 63.5% | 3.0% | Oregon wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 21.4% | 19.4% | 2.0% | Northwestern wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 91.9% | 93.1% | 91.2% | 1.9% | Northwestern wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 37.0% | 38.8% | 1.8% | Oregon wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 48.8% | 50.4% | 1.6% | Oregon wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 37.5% | 36.7% | 38.0% | 1.3% | Oregon wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 50.2% | 51.5% | 1.3% | Oregon wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 71.7% | 70.8% | 72.1% | 1.3% | Oregon wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | Northwestern wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | Northwestern wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 37.0% | 38.0% | 1.0% | Oregon wins |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 1.0% | Oregon wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 14.2% | 13.7% | 14.7% | 1.0% | Oregon wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 82.0% | 81.2% | 82.1% | 0.9% | Oregon wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 23.7% | 24.5% | 0.8% | Oregon wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 92.3% | 92.8% | 92.0% | 0.8% | Northwestern wins |