Michigan vs Rutgers CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 9 pregame analysis for Michigan at Rutgers. 2026-10-31 16:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #37. Michigan -14.

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Michigan playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.9%1.0%0.0%
At-large0.9%1.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.0%0.0%

Rutgers playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.0%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. UCLA: 3.3% outcome swing; Michigan wins
  2. Nebraska: 1.2% outcome swing; Rutgers wins
  3. USC: 1.1% outcome swing; Rutgers wins
  4. Iowa: 0.9% outcome swing; Michigan wins
  5. Northwestern: 0.7% outcome swing; Rutgers wins

Impacts if Michigan wins

  1. UCLA: 0.9% change; Michigan wins
  2. Nebraska: -0.4% change; Rutgers wins
  3. USC: -0.4% change; Rutgers wins
  4. Florida: 0.2% change; Michigan wins
  5. Kentucky: 0.2% change; Michigan wins

Impacts if Rutgers wins

  1. UCLA: -2.4% change; Michigan wins
  2. Iowa: -0.9% change; Michigan wins
  3. Nebraska: 0.8% change; Rutgers wins
  4. USC: 0.7% change; Rutgers wins
  5. Houston: 0.6% change; Rutgers wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentMichigan winsRutgers winsSwingBetter outcome
UCLABig Ten44.3%45.2%41.9%3.3%Michigan wins
NebraskaBig Ten5.6%5.2%6.4%1.2%Rutgers wins
USCBig Ten6.2%5.8%6.9%1.1%Rutgers wins
MichiganBig Ten0.9%1.0%0.0%1.0%Michigan wins
IowaBig Ten2.7%2.7%1.8%0.9%Michigan wins
NorthwesternBig Ten13.5%13.3%14.0%0.7%Rutgers wins
HoustonBig 1237.7%37.8%38.3%0.5%Rutgers wins
KentuckySEC37.8%38.0%37.5%0.5%Michigan wins
New MexicoMountain West3.2%3.2%2.7%0.5%Michigan wins
UTSAAmerican Athletic20.1%20.1%20.5%0.4%Rutgers wins
IndianaBig Ten91.9%91.9%92.2%0.3%Rutgers wins
Texas TechBig 1250.9%50.8%51.1%0.3%Rutgers wins
WisconsinBig Ten1.5%1.4%1.7%0.3%Rutgers wins
AlabamaSEC49.9%49.8%50.0%0.2%Rutgers wins
Boise StatePac-1263.8%63.8%63.6%0.2%Michigan wins
BYUBig 1262.1%62.2%62.4%0.2%Rutgers wins
FloridaSEC18.7%18.9%18.7%0.2%Michigan wins
James MadisonSun Belt1.3%1.3%1.5%0.2%Rutgers wins
LouisvilleACC2.6%2.6%2.8%0.2%Rutgers wins
MissouriSEC4.7%4.7%4.9%0.2%Rutgers wins