Nevada vs UCLA CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Nevada at UCLA. 2026-10-31 20:15 UTC. National Impact rank: #16. UCLA -23.5.
Nevada playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
UCLA playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 44.3% | 45.3% | 18.4% |
| At-large | 38.9% | 39.8% | 12.9% |
| Automatic bid | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Alabama: 4.8% outcome swing; Nevada wins
- New Mexico: 3.8% outcome swing; Nevada wins
- Texas Tech: 2.8% outcome swing; Nevada wins
- Houston: 2.7% outcome swing; Nevada wins
- LSU: 2.7% outcome swing; Nevada wins
Impacts if Nevada wins
- Alabama: 4.5% change; Nevada wins
- New Mexico: 3.7% change; Nevada wins
- Texas Tech: 2.8% change; Nevada wins
- Boise State: -2.6% change; UCLA wins
- Houston: 2.5% change; Nevada wins
Impacts if UCLA wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Nevada wins | UCLA wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | Big Ten | 44.3% | 18.4% | 45.3% | 26.9% | UCLA wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 49.9% | 54.4% | 49.6% | 4.8% | Nevada wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 3.2% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | Nevada wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 53.7% | 50.9% | 2.8% | Nevada wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 40.2% | 37.5% | 2.7% | Nevada wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 47.4% | 44.7% | 2.7% | Nevada wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 63.8% | 61.2% | 63.8% | 2.6% | UCLA wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 71.7% | 73.8% | 71.5% | 2.3% | Nevada wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 64.2% | 62.0% | 2.2% | Nevada wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 26.0% | 23.9% | 2.1% | Nevada wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 82.0% | 83.6% | 81.9% | 1.7% | Nevada wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 11.7% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 1.6% | Nevada wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 39.3% | 37.8% | 1.5% | Nevada wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 1.4% | UCLA wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 37.5% | 38.7% | 37.5% | 1.2% | Nevada wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 0.9% | Nevada wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 14.2% | 15.1% | 14.2% | 0.9% | Nevada wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 91.9% | 91.2% | 91.9% | 0.7% | UCLA wins |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 13.5% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 0.6% | UCLA wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 92.3% | 92.9% | 92.3% | 0.6% | Nevada wins |