Ohio State vs USC CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Ohio State at USC. 2026-10-31 23:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #8. Ohio State -7.
Ohio State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 92.3% | 95.1% | 84.1% |
| At-large | 30.3% | 28.1% | 46.2% |
| Automatic bid | 62.0% | 67.3% | 38.2% |
| Conference title game | 84.4% | 92.2% | 51.0% |
USC playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 6.2% | 23.2% | 2.6% |
| At-large | 5.3% | 22.2% | 3.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 1.6% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Northwestern: 2.6% outcome swing; Ohio State wins
- Wisconsin: 2.1% outcome swing; USC wins
- UCLA: 2.0% outcome swing; USC wins
- Indiana: 1.7% outcome swing; Ohio State wins
- Nebraska: 1.6% outcome swing; Ohio State wins
Impacts if Ohio State wins
- Indiana: 0.5% change; Ohio State wins
- Wisconsin: -0.5% change; USC wins
- Nebraska: 0.4% change; Ohio State wins
- Northwestern: 0.4% change; Ohio State wins
- UCLA: -0.4% change; USC wins
Impacts if USC wins
- Northwestern: -2.2% change; Ohio State wins
- UCLA: 1.6% change; USC wins
- Wisconsin: 1.6% change; USC wins
- Iowa: -1.3% change; Ohio State wins
- Indiana: -1.2% change; Ohio State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Ohio State wins | USC wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | Big Ten | 6.2% | 2.6% | 23.2% | 20.6% | USC wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 92.3% | 95.1% | 84.1% | 11.0% | Ohio State wins |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 13.5% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 2.6% | Ohio State wins |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 1.5% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | USC wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 44.3% | 43.9% | 45.9% | 2.0% | USC wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 91.9% | 92.4% | 90.7% | 1.7% | Ohio State wins |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% | Ohio State wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | Ohio State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 45.1% | 43.9% | 1.2% | Ohio State wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 38.0% | 36.9% | 1.1% | Ohio State wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 1.0% | Ohio State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 50.9% | 51.2% | 50.2% | 1.0% | Ohio State wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 20.3% | 19.4% | 0.9% | Ohio State wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 63.8% | 63.9% | 64.3% | 0.4% | USC wins |
| Florida | SEC | 18.7% | 18.7% | 18.3% | 0.4% | Ohio State wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 62.1% | 62.2% | 61.9% | 0.3% | Ohio State wins |
| Miami | ACC | 97.8% | 97.8% | 97.5% | 0.3% | Ohio State wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 0.3% | Ohio State wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 37.5% | 37.4% | 37.1% | 0.3% | Ohio State wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 0.3% | USC wins |