Nebraska vs Illinois CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Nebraska at Illinois. 2026-11-07 01:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #42. Nebraska -6.
Nebraska playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Illinois playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- UCLA: 1.2% outcome swing; Illinois wins
- Indiana: 0.9% outcome swing; Nebraska wins
- Wake Forest: 0.5% outcome swing; Illinois wins
- BYU: 0.3% outcome swing; Nebraska wins
- Alabama: 0.2% outcome swing; Nebraska wins
Impacts if Nebraska wins
- UCLA: -0.7% change; Illinois wins
- New Mexico: 0.2% change; Nebraska wins
- BYU: 0.1% change; Nebraska wins
- Indiana: -0.1% change; Nebraska wins
- LSU: 0.1% change; Either outcome
Impacts if Illinois wins
- Indiana: -1.0% change; Nebraska wins
- Wake Forest: 0.6% change; Illinois wins
- UCLA: 0.5% change; Illinois wins
- Alabama: -0.2% change; Nebraska wins
- Arizona: 0.2% change; Illinois wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Nebraska wins | Illinois wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 44.8% | 46.0% | 1.2% | Illinois wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 88.8% | 87.9% | 0.9% | Nebraska wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 45.4% | 45.9% | 0.5% | Illinois wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 51.5% | 51.2% | 0.3% | Nebraska wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 76.5% | 76.3% | 0.2% | Nebraska wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 0.2% | Illinois wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 18.3% | 18.1% | 0.2% | Nebraska wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 87.6% | 87.8% | 0.2% | Illinois wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 26.2% | 26.0% | 0.2% | Nebraska wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 0.2% | Nebraska wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 84.9% | 84.8% | 0.1% | Nebraska wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 0.1% | Illinois wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.7% | 98.7% | 98.8% | 0.1% | Illinois wins |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | Illinois wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 0.1% | Nebraska wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 0.1% | Illinois wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 62.3% | 62.2% | 0.1% | Nebraska wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 44.9% | 44.8% | 0.1% | Nebraska wins |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% | Nebraska wins |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |