Michigan State vs Michigan CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Michigan State at Michigan. 2026-11-07 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #41. Michigan -14.
Michigan State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Michigan playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Notre Dame: 1.6% outcome swing; Michigan State wins
- Indiana: 1.0% outcome swing; Michigan wins
- Ohio State: 1.0% outcome swing; Michigan wins
- Iowa: 0.6% outcome swing; Michigan wins
- Wake Forest: 0.5% outcome swing; Michigan State wins
Impacts if Michigan State wins
- Notre Dame: 1.4% change; Michigan State wins
- Indiana: -1.0% change; Michigan wins
- Iowa: -0.6% change; Michigan wins
- Ohio State: -0.6% change; Michigan wins
- Wake Forest: 0.5% change; Michigan State wins
Impacts if Michigan wins
- Ohio State: 0.4% change; Michigan wins
- New Mexico: 0.2% change; Michigan wins
- Notre Dame: -0.2% change; Michigan State wins
- UCLA: -0.2% change; Michigan wins
- Florida: -0.1% change; Michigan State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Michigan State wins | Michigan wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 89.1% | 87.5% | 1.6% | Michigan State wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 87.9% | 88.9% | 1.0% | Michigan wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 69.2% | 70.2% | 1.0% | Michigan wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 0.6% | Michigan wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 45.8% | 45.3% | 0.5% | Michigan State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 0.4% | Michigan State wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 57.2% | 56.8% | 0.4% | Michigan State wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 17.9% | 18.3% | 0.4% | Michigan wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 25.8% | 26.2% | 0.4% | Michigan wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 76.2% | 76.5% | 0.3% | Michigan wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 51.7% | 51.4% | 0.3% | Michigan State wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 0.2% | Michigan State wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 26.3% | 26.1% | 26.3% | 0.2% | Michigan wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.7% | 98.9% | 98.7% | 0.2% | Michigan State wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 50.5% | 50.3% | 0.2% | Michigan State wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 0.2% | Michigan State wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 62.0% | 62.2% | 0.2% | Michigan wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 45.1% | 45.3% | 0.2% | Michigan wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 37.3% | 37.2% | 0.1% | Michigan State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 49.2% | 49.1% | 0.1% | Michigan State wins |