UCLA vs Minnesota CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for UCLA at Minnesota. 2026-11-07 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #8. UCLA -6.
UCLA playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 45.5% | 54.4% | 21.3% |
| At-large | 37.2% | 44.8% | 14.8% |
| Automatic bid | 8.3% | 9.1% | 6.0% |
| Conference title game | 48.3% | 55.2% | 30.1% |
Minnesota playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Ohio State: 4.5% outcome swing; Minnesota wins
- Ole Miss: 4.2% outcome swing; Minnesota wins
- LSU: 3.5% outcome swing; Minnesota wins
- Notre Dame: 1.9% outcome swing; Minnesota wins
- Tennessee: 1.8% outcome swing; Minnesota wins
Impacts if UCLA wins
- Ole Miss: -1.7% change; Minnesota wins
- Notre Dame: -1.0% change; Minnesota wins
- LSU: -0.8% change; Minnesota wins
- BYU: -0.6% change; Minnesota wins
- Ohio State: -0.6% change; Minnesota wins
Impacts if Minnesota wins
- Ohio State: 3.9% change; Minnesota wins
- LSU: 2.7% change; Minnesota wins
- Ole Miss: 2.5% change; Minnesota wins
- Tennessee: 1.4% change; Minnesota wins
- Missouri: 1.3% change; Minnesota wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | UCLA wins | Minnesota wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 54.4% | 21.3% | 33.1% | UCLA wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 69.2% | 73.7% | 4.5% | Minnesota wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 48.7% | 52.9% | 4.2% | Minnesota wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 48.3% | 51.8% | 3.5% | Minnesota wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 86.7% | 88.6% | 1.9% | Minnesota wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 25.8% | 27.6% | 1.8% | Minnesota wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 1.7% | Minnesota wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 76.0% | 77.6% | 1.6% | Minnesota wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 50.8% | 52.3% | 1.5% | Minnesota wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 12.7% | 12.4% | 13.9% | 1.5% | Minnesota wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 36.9% | 38.2% | 1.3% | Minnesota wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 62.1% | 63.4% | 1.3% | Minnesota wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 44.6% | 45.9% | 1.3% | Minnesota wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 1.3% | UCLA wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 26.3% | 25.8% | 27.0% | 1.2% | Minnesota wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 1.1% | Minnesota wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 88.4% | 89.5% | 1.1% | Minnesota wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 45.2% | 46.2% | 1.0% | Minnesota wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 0.7% | Minnesota wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 84.6% | 85.3% | 0.7% | Minnesota wins |