Iowa vs Northwestern CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 10 pregame analysis for Iowa at Northwestern. 2026-11-07 05:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #9. Northwestern -1.5.

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Iowa playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP12.7%24.5%0.2%
At-large12.1%25.6%2.4%
Automatic bid0.6%1.1%0.0%
Conference title game2.1%3.7%0.2%

Northwestern playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.4%0.7%0.0%
Automatic bid0.4%0.7%0.0%
Conference title game1.0%1.8%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Indiana: 3.1% outcome swing; Northwestern wins
  2. Ole Miss: 2.7% outcome swing; Northwestern wins
  3. LSU: 2.3% outcome swing; Northwestern wins
  4. Tennessee: 2.2% outcome swing; Northwestern wins
  5. Wake Forest: 1.5% outcome swing; Northwestern wins

Impacts if Iowa wins

  1. Indiana: -1.6% change; Northwestern wins
  2. Ole Miss: -1.4% change; Northwestern wins
  3. LSU: -1.0% change; Northwestern wins
  4. Tennessee: -1.0% change; Northwestern wins
  5. BYU: -0.9% change; Northwestern wins

Impacts if Northwestern wins

  1. Indiana: 1.5% change; Northwestern wins
  2. LSU: 1.3% change; Northwestern wins
  3. Ole Miss: 1.3% change; Northwestern wins
  4. Tennessee: 1.2% change; Northwestern wins
  5. Wake Forest: 1.0% change; Northwestern wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentIowa winsNorthwestern winsSwingBetter outcome
IowaBig Ten12.7%24.5%0.2%24.3%Iowa wins
IndianaBig Ten88.9%87.3%90.4%3.1%Northwestern wins
Ole MissSEC50.4%49.0%51.7%2.7%Northwestern wins
LSUSEC49.1%48.1%50.4%2.3%Northwestern wins
TennesseeSEC26.2%25.2%27.4%2.2%Northwestern wins
Wake ForestACC45.3%44.8%46.3%1.5%Northwestern wins
OregonBig Ten6.2%5.4%6.8%1.4%Northwestern wins
BYUBig 1251.4%50.5%51.8%1.3%Northwestern wins
FloridaSEC4.5%3.9%5.1%1.2%Northwestern wins
AlabamaSEC76.5%76.0%77.1%1.1%Northwestern wins
Notre DameFBS Independents87.7%87.0%88.1%1.1%Northwestern wins
UCLABig Ten45.5%44.9%46.0%1.1%Northwestern wins
MissouriSEC7.0%6.7%7.5%0.8%Northwestern wins
UtahBig 1283.4%82.9%83.7%0.8%Northwestern wins
NorthwesternBig Ten0.4%0.0%0.7%0.7%Northwestern wins
WisconsinBig Ten1.2%0.9%1.6%0.7%Northwestern wins
Ohio StateBig Ten69.8%70.1%69.5%0.6%Iowa wins
TexasSEC62.2%62.1%62.7%0.6%Northwestern wins
GeorgiaSEC84.9%84.7%85.2%0.5%Northwestern wins
HoustonBig 1237.1%36.9%37.4%0.5%Northwestern wins