Oregon vs Ohio State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Oregon at Ohio State. 2026-11-07 20:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #6. Ohio State -10.5.
Oregon playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 6.2% | 25.7% | 0.2% |
| At-large | 1.8% | 11.1% | 0.2% |
| Automatic bid | 4.4% | 14.8% | 0.2% |
| Conference title game | 7.1% | 30.8% | 0.3% |
Ohio State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 69.8% | 78.3% | 26.5% |
| At-large | 24.1% | 25.9% | 14.0% |
| Automatic bid | 45.7% | 52.6% | 12.7% |
| Conference title game | 62.1% | 71.8% | 16.9% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- UCLA: 4.6% outcome swing; Oregon wins
- LSU: 3.2% outcome swing; Oregon wins
- Alabama: 3.0% outcome swing; Oregon wins
- BYU: 3.0% outcome swing; Oregon wins
- Wake Forest: 2.2% outcome swing; Oregon wins
Impacts if Oregon wins
- UCLA: 3.9% change; Oregon wins
- LSU: 3.0% change; Oregon wins
- BYU: 2.6% change; Oregon wins
- Alabama: 2.5% change; Oregon wins
- Boise State: 1.8% change; Oregon wins
Impacts if Ohio State wins
- UCLA: -0.7% change; Oregon wins
- Alabama: -0.5% change; Oregon wins
- BYU: -0.4% change; Oregon wins
- Houston: -0.4% change; Oregon wins
- New Mexico: 0.4% change; Ohio State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Oregon wins | Ohio State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 69.8% | 26.5% | 78.3% | 51.8% | Ohio State wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 6.2% | 25.7% | 0.2% | 25.5% | Oregon wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 49.4% | 44.8% | 4.6% | Oregon wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 52.1% | 48.9% | 3.2% | Oregon wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 79.0% | 76.0% | 3.0% | Oregon wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 54.0% | 51.0% | 3.0% | Oregon wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 47.1% | 44.9% | 2.2% | Oregon wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 58.6% | 56.6% | 2.0% | Oregon wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 46.5% | 44.7% | 1.8% | Oregon wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 27.7% | 26.0% | 1.7% | Oregon wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 38.2% | 36.7% | 1.5% | Oregon wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 51.9% | 50.4% | 1.5% | Oregon wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 17.2% | 18.5% | 1.3% | Ohio State wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 18.9% | 20.1% | 1.2% | Ohio State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 0.9% | Oregon wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 83.4% | 84.1% | 83.4% | 0.7% | Oregon wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 88.4% | 87.8% | 0.6% | Oregon wins |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | Oregon wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 0.3% | Oregon wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 85.1% | 84.8% | 0.3% | Oregon wins |