USC vs Indiana CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for USC at Indiana. 2026-11-14 20:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #4. Indiana -7.
USC playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 9.8% | 36.3% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 4.2% | 18.9% | 0.5% |
| Automatic bid | 5.6% | 18.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 11.2% | 41.6% | 0.0% |
Indiana playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 82.0% | 93.9% | 43.2% |
| At-large | 34.7% | 33.7% | 38.7% |
| Automatic bid | 47.3% | 58.8% | 3.2% |
| Conference title game | 68.2% | 86.4% | 4.5% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Oregon: 12.6% outcome swing; USC wins
- Ohio State: 8.1% outcome swing; USC wins
- Tennessee: 2.1% outcome swing; Indiana wins
- Wisconsin: 1.9% outcome swing; USC wins
- Ole Miss: 1.7% outcome swing; Indiana wins
Impacts if USC wins
- Oregon: 10.4% change; USC wins
- Ohio State: 7.4% change; USC wins
- Tennessee: -1.9% change; Indiana wins
- Wisconsin: 1.4% change; USC wins
- Ole Miss: -1.3% change; Indiana wins
Impacts if Indiana wins
- Oregon: -2.2% change; USC wins
- Ohio State: -0.7% change; USC wins
- Wisconsin: -0.5% change; USC wins
- Ole Miss: 0.4% change; Indiana wins
- Texas: 0.4% change; Indiana wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | USC wins | Indiana wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 43.2% | 93.9% | 50.7% | Indiana wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.8% | 36.3% | 0.0% | 36.3% | USC wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 38.7% | 26.1% | 12.6% | USC wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 28.7% | 20.6% | 8.1% | USC wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 52.0% | 54.1% | 2.1% | Indiana wins |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 1.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 1.9% | USC wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 1.7% | Indiana wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 17.5% | 19.0% | 1.5% | Indiana wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 66.5% | 65.2% | 1.3% | USC wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 72.6% | 73.8% | 1.2% | Indiana wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 16.5% | 17.4% | 0.9% | Indiana wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 67.1% | 66.3% | 0.8% | USC wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | Indiana wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.7% | 42.1% | 0.6% | USC wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 34.4% | 35.0% | 0.6% | Indiana wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.0% | 24.5% | 0.5% | Indiana wins |
| Illinois | Big Ten | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | Indiana wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 13.4% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 0.2% | Indiana wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | Indiana wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 27.7% | 27.9% | 0.2% | Indiana wins |