Washington vs Michigan State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Washington at Michigan State. 2026-11-14 21:15 UTC. National Impact rank: #32. Line unavailable.
Washington playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Michigan State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Indiana: 1.2% outcome swing; Washington wins
- UCLA: 0.8% outcome swing; Michigan State wins
- Iowa: 0.6% outcome swing; Washington wins
- Boise State: 0.5% outcome swing; Washington wins
- New Mexico: 0.5% outcome swing; Michigan State wins
Impacts if Washington wins
- Indiana: 0.6% change; Washington wins
- UCLA: -0.4% change; Michigan State wins
- Boise State: 0.3% change; Washington wins
- New Mexico: -0.3% change; Michigan State wins
- BYU: -0.2% change; Michigan State wins
Impacts if Michigan State wins
- Indiana: -0.6% change; Washington wins
- Iowa: -0.4% change; Washington wins
- UCLA: 0.4% change; Michigan State wins
- Ole Miss: 0.3% change; Michigan State wins
- Boise State: -0.2% change; Washington wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Washington wins | Michigan State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 82.6% | 81.4% | 1.2% | Washington wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 64.9% | 65.7% | 0.8% | Michigan State wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 24.9% | 24.3% | 0.6% | Washington wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 66.7% | 66.2% | 0.5% | Washington wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 27.6% | 28.1% | 0.5% | Michigan State wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 0.4% | Michigan State wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 0.4% | Washington wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.1% | 42.4% | 0.3% | Michigan State wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.4% | 98.3% | 98.5% | 0.2% | Michigan State wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.4% | 73.6% | 0.2% | Michigan State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.4% | 17.3% | 0.1% | Washington wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 45.4% | 45.3% | 0.1% | Washington wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 0.1% | Michigan State wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 21.2% | 21.3% | 0.1% | Michigan State wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.4% | 28.3% | 0.1% | Washington wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 53.8% | 53.9% | 0.1% | Michigan State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 35.0% | 34.9% | 0.1% | Washington wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 45.8% | 45.7% | 0.1% | Washington wins |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% | Michigan State wins |
| Air Force | Mountain West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Either outcome |