Northwestern vs Ohio State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 11 pregame analysis for Northwestern at Ohio State. 2026-11-14 17:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #16. Ohio State -10.5.

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Northwestern playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.0%0.0%0.0%

Ohio State playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP21.3%23.6%0.3%
At-large8.3%9.2%0.0%
Automatic bid13.0%14.3%0.3%
Conference title game18.2%20.1%0.5%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Oregon: 5.9% outcome swing; Northwestern wins
  2. Texas: 3.8% outcome swing; Ohio State wins
  3. Iowa: 3.7% outcome swing; Northwestern wins
  4. Indiana: 2.9% outcome swing; Northwestern wins
  5. UCLA: 2.2% outcome swing; Northwestern wins

Impacts if Northwestern wins

  1. Oregon: 5.3% change; Northwestern wins
  2. Iowa: 3.4% change; Northwestern wins
  3. Texas: -3.4% change; Ohio State wins
  4. Indiana: 2.6% change; Northwestern wins
  5. UCLA: 2.1% change; Northwestern wins

Impacts if Ohio State wins

  1. Oregon: -0.6% change; Northwestern wins
  2. Texas: 0.4% change; Ohio State wins
  3. Indiana: -0.3% change; Northwestern wins
  4. Iowa: -0.3% change; Northwestern wins
  5. Wake Forest: -0.3% change; Northwestern wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentNorthwestern winsOhio State winsSwingBetter outcome
Ohio StateBig Ten21.3%0.3%23.6%23.3%Ohio State wins
OregonBig Ten28.3%33.6%27.7%5.9%Northwestern wins
TexasSEC73.4%70.0%73.8%3.8%Ohio State wins
IowaBig Ten24.7%28.1%24.4%3.7%Northwestern wins
IndianaBig Ten82.0%84.6%81.7%2.9%Northwestern wins
UCLABig Ten65.3%67.4%65.2%2.2%Northwestern wins
Wake ForestACC45.8%47.3%45.5%1.8%Northwestern wins
HoustonBig 1245.3%46.8%45.3%1.5%Northwestern wins
Texas TechBig 1234.9%36.1%34.8%1.3%Northwestern wins
Ole MissSEC11.5%12.7%11.5%1.2%Northwestern wins
TennesseeSEC53.9%54.9%53.7%1.2%Northwestern wins
KentuckySEC13.4%14.3%13.2%1.1%Northwestern wins
LSUSEC18.7%19.6%18.6%1.0%Northwestern wins
ArizonaBig 1217.3%17.9%17.2%0.7%Northwestern wins
BYUBig 1242.3%43.0%42.3%0.7%Northwestern wins
New MexicoMountain West27.9%28.4%27.8%0.6%Northwestern wins
UtahBig 1294.2%94.7%94.1%0.6%Northwestern wins
WisconsinBig Ten1.2%1.4%1.1%0.3%Northwestern wins
AlabamaSEC96.6%96.8%96.6%0.2%Northwestern wins
IllinoisBig Ten0.4%0.6%0.4%0.2%Northwestern wins