Michigan vs Oregon CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Michigan at Oregon. 2026-11-14 20:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #14. Oregon -9.5.
Michigan playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Oregon playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 28.3% | 33.0% | 0.2% |
| At-large | 14.5% | 16.5% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 13.8% | 16.1% | 0.2% |
| Conference title game | 24.3% | 28.4% | 0.3% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Ohio State: 8.2% outcome swing; Michigan wins
- Ole Miss: 3.1% outcome swing; Michigan wins
- Indiana: 2.8% outcome swing; Michigan wins
- New Mexico: 2.7% outcome swing; Michigan wins
- Wisconsin: 2.2% outcome swing; Michigan wins
Impacts if Michigan wins
- Ohio State: 7.0% change; Michigan wins
- Ole Miss: 2.5% change; Michigan wins
- Indiana: 2.4% change; Michigan wins
- New Mexico: 2.3% change; Michigan wins
- Wisconsin: 1.9% change; Michigan wins
Impacts if Oregon wins
- Ohio State: -1.2% change; Michigan wins
- Ole Miss: -0.6% change; Michigan wins
- Indiana: -0.4% change; Michigan wins
- New Mexico: -0.4% change; Michigan wins
- Tennessee: -0.4% change; Michigan wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Michigan wins | Oregon wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 0.2% | 33.0% | 32.8% | Oregon wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 28.3% | 20.1% | 8.2% | Michigan wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 14.0% | 10.9% | 3.1% | Michigan wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 84.4% | 81.6% | 2.8% | Michigan wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 30.2% | 27.5% | 2.7% | Michigan wins |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 1.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 2.2% | Michigan wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 47.6% | 45.5% | 2.1% | Michigan wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 36.5% | 34.6% | 1.9% | Michigan wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 26.4% | 24.6% | 1.8% | Michigan wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 55.3% | 53.5% | 1.8% | Michigan wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 64.9% | 66.6% | 1.7% | Oregon wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 74.7% | 73.1% | 1.6% | Michigan wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 46.4% | 45.1% | 1.3% | Michigan wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 13.4% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 1.2% | Michigan wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 19.8% | 18.6% | 1.2% | Michigan wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.7% | 42.1% | 0.6% | Michigan wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 97.0% | 96.6% | 0.4% | Michigan wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 0.3% | Michigan wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 0.2% | Michigan wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.2% | Michigan wins |