Minnesota vs Penn State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Minnesota at Penn State. 2026-11-15 00:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #41. Penn State -7.
Minnesota playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Penn State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Iowa: 2.0% outcome swing; Minnesota wins
- Indiana: 0.7% outcome swing; Minnesota wins
- USC: 0.7% outcome swing; Penn State wins
- Ohio State: 0.5% outcome swing; Minnesota wins
- Oregon: 0.5% outcome swing; Penn State wins
Impacts if Minnesota wins
- Iowa: 1.8% change; Minnesota wins
- Indiana: 0.6% change; Minnesota wins
- USC: -0.6% change; Penn State wins
- Ohio State: 0.4% change; Minnesota wins
- Tennessee: -0.4% change; Penn State wins
Impacts if Penn State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Minnesota wins | Penn State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 26.5% | 24.5% | 2.0% | Minnesota wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 82.6% | 81.9% | 0.7% | Minnesota wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 0.7% | Penn State wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 21.7% | 21.2% | 0.5% | Minnesota wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 28.0% | 28.5% | 0.5% | Penn State wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 65.6% | 65.1% | 0.5% | Minnesota wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 17.0% | 17.4% | 0.4% | Penn State wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.1% | 42.4% | 0.3% | Penn State wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 53.5% | 53.8% | 0.3% | Penn State wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 73.1% | 73.4% | 0.3% | Penn State wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 45.5% | 45.8% | 0.3% | Penn State wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 96.5% | 96.6% | 0.1% | Penn State wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 66.4% | 66.3% | 66.4% | 0.1% | Penn State wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 45.3% | 45.4% | 0.1% | Penn State wins |
| Miami | ACC | 98.4% | 98.3% | 98.4% | 0.1% | Penn State wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 0.1% | Penn State wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 0.1% | Penn State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 34.8% | 34.9% | 0.1% | Penn State wins |
| Utah | Big 12 | 94.2% | 94.1% | 94.2% | 0.1% | Penn State wins |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | Penn State wins |