Illinois vs UCLA CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 11 pregame analysis for Illinois at UCLA. 2026-11-14 02:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #9. UCLA -9.5.
Illinois playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.9% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
UCLA playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 65.3% | 76.2% | 34.5% |
| At-large | 47.4% | 55.3% | 22.6% |
| Automatic bid | 17.9% | 20.3% | 11.3% |
| Conference title game | 71.1% | 81.5% | 42.2% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- Ohio State: 12.7% outcome swing; Illinois wins
- Oregon: 4.5% outcome swing; Illinois wins
- Iowa: 4.3% outcome swing; Illinois wins
- Ole Miss: 3.0% outcome swing; Illinois wins
- Texas: 3.0% outcome swing; Illinois wins
Impacts if Illinois wins
- Ohio State: 9.6% change; Illinois wins
- Oregon: 4.0% change; Illinois wins
- Iowa: 3.5% change; Illinois wins
- Texas: 2.2% change; Illinois wins
- Ole Miss: 2.1% change; Illinois wins
Impacts if UCLA wins
- Ohio State: -3.1% change; Illinois wins
- Ole Miss: -0.9% change; Illinois wins
- Iowa: -0.8% change; Illinois wins
- Texas: -0.8% change; Illinois wins
- Indiana: -0.7% change; Illinois wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Illinois wins | UCLA wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | Big Ten | 65.3% | 34.5% | 76.2% | 41.7% | UCLA wins |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 21.3% | 30.9% | 18.2% | 12.7% | Illinois wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 28.3% | 32.3% | 27.8% | 4.5% | Illinois wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 24.7% | 28.2% | 23.9% | 4.3% | Illinois wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 11.5% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 3.0% | Illinois wins |
| Texas | SEC | 73.4% | 75.6% | 72.6% | 3.0% | Illinois wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 53.9% | 55.5% | 53.2% | 2.3% | Illinois wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 82.0% | 83.2% | 81.3% | 1.9% | Illinois wins |
| LSU | SEC | 18.7% | 20.1% | 18.2% | 1.9% | Illinois wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 13.4% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 1.2% | Illinois wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 1.2% | UCLA wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 17.3% | 18.2% | 17.2% | 1.0% | Illinois wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.8% | 46.4% | 45.4% | 1.0% | Illinois wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 42.3% | 42.9% | 42.0% | 0.9% | Illinois wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 45.3% | 46.0% | 45.1% | 0.9% | Illinois wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 34.9% | 35.3% | 34.6% | 0.7% | Illinois wins |
| Illinois | Big Ten | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.6% | Illinois wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 96.6% | 97.0% | 96.5% | 0.5% | Illinois wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 27.9% | 28.2% | 27.7% | 0.5% | Illinois wins |
| South Carolina | SEC | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 0.4% | Illinois wins |