Notre Dame vs Navy CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 9 pregame analysis for Notre Dame at Navy. 2026-10-31 16:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #17. Notre Dame -30.5.

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Notre Dame playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP95.3%95.7%62.9%
At-large95.3%95.6%62.8%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%

Navy playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.1%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.1%0.0%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Alabama: 5.5% outcome swing; Navy wins
  2. BYU: 3.9% outcome swing; Notre Dame wins
  3. LSU: 3.9% outcome swing; Navy wins
  4. UTSA: 3.6% outcome swing; Navy wins
  5. Houston: 3.4% outcome swing; Navy wins

Impacts if Notre Dame wins

  1. BYU: 0.1% change; Notre Dame wins
  2. Houston: -0.1% change; Navy wins
  3. Kentucky: -0.1% change; Navy wins
  4. LSU: -0.1% change; Navy wins
  5. Tennessee: -0.1% change; Navy wins

Impacts if Navy wins

  1. Alabama: 5.5% change; Navy wins
  2. BYU: -3.8% change; Notre Dame wins
  3. LSU: 3.8% change; Navy wins
  4. UTSA: 3.6% change; Navy wins
  5. Houston: 3.3% change; Navy wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentNotre Dame winsNavy winsSwingBetter outcome
Notre DameFBS Independents95.3%95.7%62.9%32.8%Notre Dame wins
AlabamaSEC49.9%49.9%55.4%5.5%Navy wins
BYUBig 1262.1%62.2%58.3%3.9%Notre Dame wins
LSUSEC44.9%44.8%48.7%3.9%Navy wins
UTSAAmerican Athletic20.1%20.1%23.7%3.6%Navy wins
HoustonBig 1237.7%37.6%41.0%3.4%Navy wins
Boise StatePac-1263.8%63.8%61.0%2.8%Notre Dame wins
KentuckySEC37.8%37.7%40.3%2.6%Navy wins
Texas TechBig 1250.9%50.9%53.5%2.6%Navy wins
UtahBig 1271.7%71.7%74.3%2.6%Navy wins
Ole MissSEC37.5%37.5%39.8%2.3%Navy wins
TennesseeSEC11.7%11.6%13.5%1.9%Navy wins
MiamiACC97.8%97.8%96.1%1.7%Notre Dame wins
GeorgiaSEC82.0%82.0%83.5%1.5%Navy wins
IndianaBig Ten91.9%91.9%93.1%1.2%Navy wins
MissouriSEC4.7%4.7%5.9%1.2%Navy wins
North TexasAmerican Athletic4.7%4.7%5.9%1.2%Navy wins
UCLABig Ten44.3%44.2%45.4%1.2%Navy wins
USCBig Ten6.2%6.2%7.4%1.2%Navy wins
ArizonaBig 1224.0%24.0%25.1%1.1%Navy wins