Washington State vs Oregon State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds

Week 7 pregame analysis for Washington State at Oregon State. 2026-10-17 22:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #42. Oregon State -17.5.

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Washington State playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP0.0%0.0%0.0%
At-large0.0%0.0%0.0%
Automatic bid0.0%0.0%0.0%
Conference title game0.1%1.4%0.0%

Oregon State playoff paths

PathCurrentWith winWith loss
CFP3.8%3.9%1.3%
Automatic bid3.8%3.9%1.3%
Conference title game71.2%73.7%42.4%

Biggest non-participant CFP swings

  1. Texas Tech: 2.6% outcome swing; Oregon State wins
  2. Houston: 2.3% outcome swing; Oregon State wins
  3. Arizona: 0.7% outcome swing; Washington State wins
  4. James Madison: 0.7% outcome swing; Washington State wins
  5. Missouri: 0.6% outcome swing; Washington State wins

Impacts if Washington State wins

  1. Texas Tech: -2.4% change; Oregon State wins
  2. Houston: -2.1% change; Oregon State wins
  3. Arizona: 0.7% change; Washington State wins
  4. James Madison: 0.6% change; Washington State wins
  5. UCLA: 0.6% change; Washington State wins

Impacts if Oregon State wins

  1. Houston: 0.2% change; Oregon State wins
  2. Missouri: -0.2% change; Washington State wins
  3. Texas Tech: 0.2% change; Oregon State wins
  4. UTSA: -0.2% change; Washington State wins
  5. Boise State: -0.1% change; Washington State wins

Biggest modeled CFP impacts

This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.

TeamConferenceCurrentWashington State winsOregon State winsSwingBetter outcome
Oregon StatePac-123.8%1.3%3.9%2.6%Oregon State wins
Texas TechBig 1276.2%73.8%76.4%2.6%Oregon State wins
HoustonBig 1242.0%39.9%42.2%2.3%Oregon State wins
ArizonaBig 125.7%6.4%5.7%0.7%Washington State wins
James MadisonSun Belt9.9%10.5%9.8%0.7%Washington State wins
MissouriSEC16.4%16.8%16.2%0.6%Washington State wins
UCLABig Ten25.8%26.4%25.8%0.6%Washington State wins
Boise StatePac-1269.5%69.9%69.4%0.5%Washington State wins
IowaBig Ten18.4%18.9%18.4%0.5%Washington State wins
USCBig Ten18.7%19.2%18.7%0.5%Washington State wins
BYUBig 1236.5%36.9%36.5%0.4%Washington State wins
New MexicoMountain West3.8%4.3%3.9%0.4%Washington State wins
UTSAAmerican Athletic6.8%7.0%6.6%0.4%Washington State wins
BaylorBig 126.4%6.1%6.4%0.3%Oregon State wins
IndianaBig Ten87.5%87.7%87.4%0.3%Washington State wins
LSUSEC18.1%18.5%18.2%0.3%Washington State wins
NebraskaBig Ten18.5%18.8%18.5%0.3%Washington State wins
North TexasAmerican Athletic1.3%1.6%1.3%0.3%Washington State wins
Oklahoma StateBig 124.3%4.1%4.4%0.3%Oregon State wins
OregonBig Ten17.9%18.1%17.8%0.3%Washington State wins