Fresno State vs San Diego State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 7 pregame analysis for Fresno State at San Diego State . 2026-10-18 02:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #21. Fresno State -8.5.
Rooting Guide
National Impact
CFP Odds
Conference Standings
Projected CFP Bracket
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Path Current With win With loss CFP 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% Automatic bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% Conference title game 23.8% 27.2% 5.6%
Path Current With win With loss CFP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% At-large 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Automatic bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Conference title game 1.0% 4.5% 0.3%
Biggest non-participant CFP swings Boise State : 4.1% outcome swing; Fresno State winsJames Madison : 3.7% outcome swing; San Diego State winsUCLA : 2.4% outcome swing; San Diego State winsUSC : 1.6% outcome swing; Fresno State winsMemphis : 0.8% outcome swing; San Diego State winsImpacts if Fresno State wins Boise State : 0.9% change; Fresno State winsJames Madison : -0.8% change; San Diego State winsUSC : 0.8% change; Fresno State winsMissouri : -0.4% change; San Diego State winsOregon : -0.2% change; Either outcomeImpacts if San Diego State wins Boise State : -3.2% change; Fresno State winsJames Madison : 2.9% change; San Diego State winsUCLA : 2.2% change; San Diego State winsUSC : -0.8% change; Fresno State winsMemphis : 0.7% change; San Diego State winsBiggest modeled CFP impacts This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
Team Conference Current Fresno State wins San Diego State wins Swing Better outcome Boise State Pac-12 69.5% 70.4% 66.3% 4.1% Fresno State wins James Madison Sun Belt 9.9% 9.1% 12.8% 3.7% San Diego State wins UCLA Big Ten 25.8% 25.6% 28.0% 2.4% San Diego State wins USC Big Ten 18.7% 19.5% 17.9% 1.6% Fresno State wins Memphis American Athletic 3.9% 3.8% 4.6% 0.8% San Diego State wins Fresno State Pac-12 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% Fresno State wins Houston Big 12 42.0% 42.1% 41.6% 0.5% Fresno State wins Indiana Big Ten 87.5% 87.4% 87.0% 0.4% Fresno State wins Missouri SEC 16.4% 16.0% 16.4% 0.4% San Diego State wins Arizona Big 12 5.7% 5.6% 5.9% 0.3% San Diego State wins Nebraska Big Ten 18.5% 18.5% 18.2% 0.3% Fresno State wins Ohio State Big Ten 78.7% 78.7% 78.4% 0.3% Fresno State wins Alabama SEC 77.1% 77.1% 76.9% 0.2% Fresno State wins Baylor Big 12 6.4% 6.4% 6.2% 0.2% Fresno State wins Iowa Big Ten 18.4% 18.4% 18.6% 0.2% San Diego State wins North Texas American Athletic 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 0.2% San Diego State wins Northwestern Big Ten 9.2% 9.2% 9.4% 0.2% San Diego State wins UTSA American Athletic 6.8% 6.8% 6.6% 0.2% Fresno State wins BYU Big 12 36.5% 36.6% 36.7% 0.1% San Diego State wins Cincinnati Big 12 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% Fresno State wins