Texas State vs Boise State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 9 pregame analysis for Texas State at Boise State. 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #4. Line unavailable.
Texas State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 8.0% | 26.4% | 5.1% |
Boise State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 63.8% | 68.9% | 29.2% |
| Automatic bid | 63.4% | 68.3% | 29.1% |
| Conference title game | 97.8% | 99.2% | 91.1% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- UTSA: 19.5% outcome swing; Texas State wins
- North Texas: 8.0% outcome swing; Texas State wins
- New Mexico: 4.1% outcome swing; Texas State wins
- Army: 2.9% outcome swing; Texas State wins
- James Madison: 2.1% outcome swing; Texas State wins
Impacts if Texas State wins
- UTSA: 16.8% change; Texas State wins
- North Texas: 6.9% change; Texas State wins
- New Mexico: 3.5% change; Texas State wins
- Army: 2.4% change; Texas State wins
- James Madison: 1.9% change; Texas State wins
Impacts if Boise State wins
- UTSA: -2.7% change; Texas State wins
- North Texas: -1.1% change; Texas State wins
- Oregon State: 0.7% change; Boise State wins
- New Mexico: -0.6% change; Texas State wins
- Army: -0.5% change; Texas State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Texas State wins | Boise State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 63.8% | 29.2% | 68.9% | 39.7% | Boise State wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 36.9% | 17.4% | 19.5% | Texas State wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 4.7% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 8.0% | Texas State wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 3.2% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 4.1% | Texas State wins |
| Army | American Athletic | 2.5% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | Texas State wins |
| James Madison | Sun Belt | 1.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | Texas State wins |
| Oregon State | Pac-12 | 4.3% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 1.8% | Boise State wins |
| Memphis | American Athletic | 0.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 1.3% | Texas State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 44.9% | 45.9% | 44.9% | 1.0% | Texas State wins |
| Texas State | Pac-12 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | Texas State wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 0.9% | Boise State wins |
| Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% | Texas State wins |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 0.5% | Boise State wins |
| Kentucky | SEC | 37.8% | 38.1% | 37.6% | 0.5% | Texas State wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 44.3% | 43.8% | 44.3% | 0.5% | Boise State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 24.0% | 23.6% | 24.0% | 0.4% | Boise State wins |
| South Florida | American Athletic | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | Texas State wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 82.0% | 82.4% | 82.1% | 0.3% | Texas State wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.7% | 38.1% | 37.8% | 0.3% | Texas State wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 91.9% | 92.1% | 91.8% | 0.3% | Texas State wins |