Boise State vs Colorado State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Boise State at Colorado State. 2026-11-07 23:00 UTC. National Impact rank: #12. Line unavailable.
Boise State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 56.8% | 58.8% | 8.2% |
| Automatic bid | 56.0% | 57.9% | 8.2% |
| Conference title game | 98.9% | 99.5% | 94.0% |
Colorado State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- New Mexico: 20.8% outcome swing; Colorado State wins
- UTSA: 12.0% outcome swing; Colorado State wins
- Liberty: 7.7% outcome swing; Colorado State wins
- North Texas: 6.1% outcome swing; Colorado State wins
- BYU: 1.7% outcome swing; Colorado State wins
Impacts if Boise State wins
- UTSA: -0.8% change; Colorado State wins
- Liberty: -0.4% change; Colorado State wins
- New Mexico: -0.4% change; Colorado State wins
- North Texas: -0.3% change; Colorado State wins
- Alabama: -0.1% change; Colorado State wins
Impacts if Colorado State wins
- New Mexico: 20.4% change; Colorado State wins
- UTSA: 11.2% change; Colorado State wins
- Liberty: 7.3% change; Colorado State wins
- North Texas: 5.8% change; Colorado State wins
- BYU: 1.6% change; Colorado State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Boise State wins | Colorado State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 58.8% | 8.2% | 50.6% | Boise State wins |
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 17.7% | 38.5% | 20.8% | Colorado State wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 19.3% | 31.3% | 12.0% | Colorado State wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.8% | 3.4% | 11.1% | 7.7% | Colorado State wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 3.1% | 2.8% | 8.9% | 6.1% | Colorado State wins |
| BYU | Big 12 | 51.4% | 51.3% | 53.0% | 1.7% | Colorado State wins |
| Memphis | American Athletic | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | Colorado State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 49.0% | 49.6% | 0.6% | Colorado State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 44.8% | 45.2% | 0.4% | Colorado State wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 45.4% | 45.0% | 0.4% | Boise State wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 88.9% | 88.6% | 0.3% | Boise State wins |
| Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | Colorado State wins |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 0.3% | Boise State wins |
| South Florida | American Athletic | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | Colorado State wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 26.2% | 26.5% | 0.3% | Colorado State wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 45.5% | 45.2% | 0.3% | Boise State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 0.2% | Colorado State wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 0.2% | Colorado State wins |
| Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 87.7% | 87.6% | 87.8% | 0.2% | Colorado State wins |
| Ohio | Mid-American | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | Colorado State wins |