Texas State vs Oregon State CFP Impact & Playoff Odds
Week 10 pregame analysis for Texas State at Oregon State. 2026-11-08 03:30 UTC. National Impact rank: #22. Line unavailable.
Texas State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 13.1% | 42.3% | 0.0% |
Oregon State playoff paths
| Path | Current | With win | With loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFP | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| At-large | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Automatic bid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conference title game | 65.6% | 84.3% | 20.8% |
Biggest non-participant CFP swings
- New Mexico: 1.9% outcome swing; Oregon State wins
- UTSA: 1.4% outcome swing; Texas State wins
- Houston: 1.2% outcome swing; Oregon State wins
- Texas Tech: 1.2% outcome swing; Oregon State wins
- Texas: 0.8% outcome swing; Texas State wins
Impacts if Texas State wins
- New Mexico: -1.5% change; Oregon State wins
- Houston: -0.9% change; Oregon State wins
- UTSA: 0.9% change; Texas State wins
- Texas: 0.7% change; Texas State wins
- Texas Tech: -0.7% change; Oregon State wins
Impacts if Oregon State wins
- Texas Tech: 0.5% change; Oregon State wins
- UTSA: -0.5% change; Texas State wins
- New Mexico: 0.4% change; Oregon State wins
- Arizona: 0.3% change; Oregon State wins
- Houston: 0.3% change; Oregon State wins
Biggest modeled CFP impacts
This table compares each team’s current CFP probability with the two possible game outcomes. It is a pregame model view, not an official ranking or sportsbook market.
| Team | Conference | Current | Texas State wins | Oregon State wins | Swing | Better outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | Mountain West | 18.1% | 16.6% | 18.5% | 1.9% | Oregon State wins |
| UTSA | American Athletic | 20.1% | 21.0% | 19.6% | 1.4% | Texas State wins |
| Houston | Big 12 | 37.1% | 36.2% | 37.4% | 1.2% | Oregon State wins |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 44.8% | 44.1% | 45.3% | 1.2% | Oregon State wins |
| Texas | SEC | 62.2% | 62.9% | 62.1% | 0.8% | Texas State wins |
| Boise State | Pac-12 | 56.8% | 57.4% | 56.7% | 0.7% | Texas State wins |
| LSU | SEC | 49.1% | 49.6% | 48.9% | 0.7% | Texas State wins |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 45.3% | 45.7% | 45.0% | 0.7% | Texas State wins |
| Arizona | Big 12 | 12.4% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 0.5% | Oregon State wins |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 88.9% | 88.7% | 89.0% | 0.3% | Oregon State wins |
| North Texas | American Athletic | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 0.3% | Texas State wins |
| Georgia | SEC | 84.9% | 85.0% | 84.8% | 0.2% | Texas State wins |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 50.4% | 50.4% | 50.2% | 0.2% | Texas State wins |
| Tennessee | SEC | 26.2% | 26.3% | 26.1% | 0.2% | Texas State wins |
| UCLA | Big Ten | 45.5% | 45.2% | 45.4% | 0.2% | Oregon State wins |
| USC | Big Ten | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 0.2% | Texas State wins |
| Alabama | SEC | 76.5% | 76.5% | 76.4% | 0.1% | Texas State wins |
| Florida | SEC | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 0.1% | Texas State wins |
| Liberty | Conference USA | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 0.1% | Oregon State wins |
| Missouri | SEC | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 0.1% | Oregon State wins |